STIR: Little Net Movement In Fed Pricing Over Data, Under 50bp Cuts Still Priced

The Chicago Fed's "real-time" advance estimate of December's unemployment rate is 4.56% - which would be unchanged from November's BLS reading. They'll publish a final estimate on Thurs Jan 8, ahead of the official payrolls release on Jan 9.

• Such a stable reading - if reflected in the December BLS report - wouldn't move the needle much in favor of a follow-up cut at the January FOMC meeting.
• The estimate incorporates a slightly higher hiring rate for unemployed workers (44.72%, vs 44.54% prior), with an unchanged layoffs/other separations rate (2.10%).
• Their model also suggests that the odds of a lower rounded unemployment rate are 49%, with no change 27% and and increase 24%, perhaps reflecting the unrounded value lying between 4.5-4.6%.
• In other labor market data news, a reminder that ADP is not publishing weekly payrolls data today - Bloomberg's calendar has erroneously included it on today's docket. ADP will publish their monthly payrolls report for December on Wednesday Jan 7 ahead of NFPs on Jan 9.

RXG6 132.00 calls paper paid 2 on 6K

The early NY downtick in Tsys helps take both Bund and gilt futures to fresh session lows before stabilisation/modest recovery in recent trade.

• Moves are flow-centric, with no fresh headline catalysts noted.
• Initial support levels for Bund (127.31) and gilt (90.50) futures remain unchallenged/some distance away.
• German curve bear steepens, UK gilt yields little changed.
• Macro headline flow remains light, with little outside of the ongoing Ukraine-Russia ceasefire debate to note.
• FOMC meeting minutes eyed later today.