SCANDIS: Little FX Reaction With Norway Inflation and Swedish GDP Broadly Inline
Jul-10 06:06
Little reaction in NOKSEK following the Norwegian June CPI and Swedish May activity data readings. The cross rose ~0.1% to a post-data high of 0.9434 before falling back to 0.9428 at typing.
- Although annual Norwegian CPI-ATE inflation was a tenth above consensus on a rounded basis (3.1% Y/Y vs 2.8% prior), it was in line with Norges Bank’s June MPR projections. The monthly NSA reading of 0.5% was in line with analyst expectations, suggesting the Y/Y upside surprise was partly due to unfavourable rounding.
- In Sweden, May monthly GDP fell 0.2% M/M in line with consensus, with April’s reading revised down two tenths to 0.2%. Household consumption looks soft at -1.2% M/M.
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UK DATA: Soft wage and payrolls data
Jun-10 06:06
- The wage data there all a bit softer than expected, including the key private regular AWE data that was 2 tenths below consensus.
- The unemployment data was in line with expectations, rising to 4.6%.
- A really big miss for the very volatile flash PAYE RTI payrolls number at -109k for May. Take that with a handful of salt. But the April figure being revised down to -55k (rather than revised up) is a little concerning here.
- Overall the data is on the soft side.
- GBPUSD fell around 15 pips on the release but didn't challenge its overnight lows.
EURJPY TECHS: Pierces Resistance
Jun-10 06:00
- RES 4: 167.17 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 1: 165.45 Intraday high
- PRICE: 164.85 @ 07:00 BST Jun 10
- SUP 1: 163.59 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 162.85 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 161.78 Low May 26
- SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support
The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and the latest rally reinforces current conditions. The cross has pierced key resistance at 165.21, the May 13 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 166.10, the Nov 6 2024 high. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal. First support lies at 163.59, the 20-day EMA.
MNI: NORWAY MAY UNDERLYING CPI +0.2% M/M, +2.8% Y/Y
Jun-10 06:00
- MNI: NORWAY MAY UNDERLYING CPI +0.2% M/M, +2.8% Y/Y
