CEE: LITHUANIA-Social Democrats Select Labour Min Ruginiene As PM Candidate
The Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP) has selected Minister of Social Security and Labour and former trade union leader Inga Ruginiene to serve as the new party president and PM. Ruginiene won the backing of "a vast majority" of those taking part in the LSDP leadership meeting on 6 August, with other contenders, Deputy Speaker of the Seimas (parliament) Juozas Olekas and Transport Minister Eugenijus Sabutis, dropping out of the race.
- Ruginiene will still need to be formally put forward by President Gitanas Nauseda and confirmed by the Seimas. Once this has taken place, the new PM will have 15 days to compile a cabinet approved by Nauseda and submit a programme for gov't to the parliament.
- A key task now will be re-forming the governing coalition in place before the collapse of Gintautas Paluckas' gov't last week. As well as her centre-left LSDP, the gov't comprised the populist nationalist 'Dawn of Nemunas' party and the environmentalist Union of Democrats "For Lithuania".
- Within hours of her appointment, Ruginiene had to field questions from the opposition and media regarding her visits to Russia made after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. She said there was nothing to be "ashamed" about in visiting distant relatives, adding "I will definitely support Ukraine until victory and I believe in that victory". Lithuania, along with the other Baltic States, has been one of the most vocal advocates for a hard line by NATO and the EU against Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary -Bunds and Gilts Clear Support
- In the FI space, Bund futures are trading lower today, extending Monday’s sell-off. Support at 129.77, the Jul 3 low, has been cleared. The clear break confirms a resumption of the recent bearish theme and opens 129.30 next, the May 22 low. On the upside, resistance around the the 50-day EMA, at 130.51, has recently been pierced but for now, remains intact. A clear break of it is required to highlight a possible reversal.
- A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and today’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has breached support at 91.63, the Jul 2 low. Price has also pierced 91.50, the 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg. This exposes 90.97, the 76.4% retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 92.61, the 20-day EMA.
FRANCE DATA: Tariff Impact Clear, But Several Risks Still In Pipeline (2/2)
Ministry of Commerce data highlights a sharp drop in Y/Y French exports to the Americas since March, with exports falling 6.5% M/M in April and 6.4% M/M in May. The US makes up around ~80% of “Americas” exports. Clearly, already implemented tariffs and associated trade policy uncertainty are having an impact on trade with the US.
- However, Eurostat data suggests France is not too exposed to the sector-specific 50% steel/aluminium and 25% autos levies imposed by the US.
- Instead, officials will be more concerned by French sensitivity to:
- (i) Pharmaceuticals, which are currently subject to a Section 232 investigation.
- (ii) Aircraft, given Airbus’ position as Boeing’s main competitor.
- (iii) Food, alcohol and tobacco, with the agricultural sector threatened with 17% tariffs over the weekend and the alcohol sector previously being threatened with punitive measures following initial EU retaliatory plans.
- Other machinery/manufacturing exports to the US are also worth ~0.8% GDP, so are impacted by the 10% baseline reciprocal tariff.
- This sensitivity to potential future tariff announcements has likely underscored the French Government’s slower, more detailed, preference for trade negotiations than the likes of Germany (whose auto industry is more sensitive to already-announced sector-specific tariffs, for example). Reports that spirits and aircraft may be exempted from tariffs in the latest US offer will come as a relief to some French producers.
