OIL: Limited Move Lower As Axios Points To U.S.-Iran Meeting

Jul-03 14:58

WTI & Brent tick lower after Axios source reports note that “White House envoy Steve Witkoff is planning to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week to restart nuclear talks”.

  • However, the move is only modest (~$0.60) and has started to fade, with bears failing to generate meaningful breaks below pre-existing session lows, let alone getting near challenging yesterday’s lows.
  • The lack of firm details surrounding the potential meeting (Axios noted that “the sources said a final date hasn't been set, and neither country has publicly confirmed the meeting”) and fact that Iran has recently stressed that it has no plans to halt its uranium enrichment blunt the initial impact of the story.
  • Our technical analyst notes that the bearish outlook remains present in both WTI & Brent, despite yesterday’s rally. 

Historical bullets

US TSY OPTIONS: Large 10Y At-the-Money Put Buy

Jun-03 14:55
  • over +28,500 TYN5 110.5 puts, paying 37 ref 110-17, total volume over 39,500 ref 110-18.5
  • 0.48% delta and appr 6.48% implied vol on options that expire June 20.

ECB: MNI ECB Preview: The Last Consecutive Cut?

Jun-03 14:52

OPTIONS: Expiries for Jun04 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

Jun-03 14:49
  • EUR/USD: $1.1200(E1.5bln), $1.1250(E885mln), $1.1350-55(E1.2bln), $1.1400-05(E1.1bln), $1.1450(E1.3bln)
  • USD/JPY: Y143.50($698mln), Y144.15-25($580mln), Y145.00($630mln)
  • AUD/USD: $0.6435-55(A$1.7bln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.3600($560mln), C$1.3735-50($1.4bln), C$1.3800($621mln)