INTERNATIONAL TRADE: Limited Initial Re-Routing Of China Exports To EU [1/2]
May-09 15:50
- As noted earlier today, China trade data for April saw the trade surplus to the EU larger than that with the US for the first time since 2010.
- ECB policymakers are watching for imported deflation from China owing to US tariff policy, with the ECB monetary policy statement again noting a risk of further downward pressure coming from “a re-routing of exports into the euro area from countries with overcapacity”, something echoed by Simkus earlier today.
- Whilst it’s still early to see trade re-routing in the first month of hard data that captures the US reciprocal tariff disruption following Apr 2 Liberation Day announcements before the Apr 9 partial pause, a sharp decline in China exports to the US outweighed an increase in China exports to the EU.
- Whilst China exports to the EU increased 8% Y/Y in April, the three-month average was just 2%, with the two figures compared to -21% Y/Y and -8% Y/Y 3mma for exports to the US.
- There are of course signs of continued strong China trade with Vietnam (China exports 23% Y/Y, 26.5% Y/Y 3mma), although this has so far been much more of a US-relevant story rather than EU.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US STOCKS: Early Equities Roundup: Off Lows Despite Retaliatory Tariff Volley
Apr-09 15:40
- Stocks have see-sawed off early overnight lows ahead midday despite China (84%) and the EU (E21B) announcing retaliatory tariffs against the US Wednesday morning. Currently, the DJIA trades down 3.06 points (-0.01%) at 37632.5, S&P E-Minis down 0.25 points (-0.01%) at 5020.25, Nasdaq up 126.9 points (0.8%) at 15391.6.
- Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors outperformed in the first half, hardware and semiconductor makers buoyed the tech sector: Advanced Micro Devices +5.28%, Intel Corp +4.69%, Apple +3.90%, Skyworks Solutions +3.68% and Teradyne +3.05%.
- The Consumer Discretionary sector was supported by: Tesla +3.51%, Wynn Resorts +2.81%, Expedia Group +1.87%, Chipotle Mexican Grill +1.78% and MGM Resorts International +1.61%
- On the flipside, Utilities and Health Care sectors underperformed, alternative energy providers weighing on the former: Entergy Corp -3.52%, Evergy -3.32%, NiSource -2.91%, Duke Energy -2.72% and NextEra Energy -2.71%.
- Meanwhile, pharmaceuticals weighed on the Health Care sector: Bristol-Myers Squibb -5.73%, AbbVie -5.68%, Incyte Corp -4.88%, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals -4.77% and Eli Lilly -4.53%.
- Reminder, banks kick off the latest earnings cycle this Friday with Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo & Co, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley reporting.
FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.250%(ALLOT 3.28%)
Apr-09 15:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.250%(ALLOT 3.28%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 43.15% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 4.04% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 52.81% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.71
FED: US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $562 MLN FROM $60.000 BLN TOTAL
Apr-09 15:15
- US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $562 MLN FROM $60.000 BLN TOTAL
