SWEDEN: LFS Unemployment Rate Should Cement "Steady Rates" Guidance Next Week
Smaller fall in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate than had been expected in November (9.1% vs 8.8% cons, 9.3% prior). Analyst forecasts submitted to Bloomberg ranged from 8.7-9.0%. Big picture, there are signs that the labour market is starting to recover (e.g. in Public Employment Service and survey data), but a stubbornly high LFS unemployment rate should mean the Riksbank continues to guide for steady rates as the base case next week. Any tacit endorsement of market pricing for a hike by the end of next year could be included in the updated rate path projection.
- On a 3mma basis, the unemployment rate was 9.1% in November, up from 9.0% in October. As such, the unemployment rate continues to track above the Riksbank’s September MPR projections.
- The decline in the unemployment rate on a monthly basis was driven by an increase in employment (rather than a fall in the labour force). Employment growth was 0.6% M/M.
- That leaves the 3mma employment rate right in line with the Riksbank’s projections – muting the dovish signal sent by unemployment rate trends. 3m/3m employment growth was 0.2% for the second consecutive month in November.
- Looking ahead, the Economic Tendency Indicator expected employment metric rose solidly in November, though we caveat that this was driven mostly by the construction sector.
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UK: Streeting says he is not planning leadership challenge
"*THERE IS NO LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE FROM ME, STREETING SAYS" Bbg
Note that this is in response to the front page of the Guardian that discusses that "Downing Street has launched an extraordinary operation to protect Kier Starmer" and names Streeting as a likely senior challenger.
- Opinion pieces last night noted that this may be briefings from Number 10, knowing that Streeting was already due to do the media round today, in order to force him to deny the allegations and pledge public supports for Starmer. And this is seen to be party management ahead of the Budget.
GILT TECHS: (Z5) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 94.60 1.764proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
- RES 3: 94.24 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
- RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 93.98 High Nov 4 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 93.87 @ Close Nov 11
- SUP 1: 93.09/75 20-day EMA / Low Nov 10
- SUP 2: 92.38 Low Oct 20
- SUP 3: 92.36 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 91.82 High Sep 11
The trend theme in Gilt futures remains bullish and this week’s strong bounce - so far - reinforces a bull theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the bull trigger at 93.98, the Nov 4 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 94.24, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 93.09, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (Z5) Bull Flag
- RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.34 @ Close Nov 11
- SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 120.71 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7
The trend set-up in BTP futures is unchanged and conditions remain bullish. Recent weakness appears corrective - the move down since Oct 22 appears to be flag formation, a bullish continuation pattern. Note too the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high.
