STIR: Less Than 50bp Of Cuts Priced Through Dec After CPI

• Some Overnight Desks may have pointed out to some USD strength Overnight following the War in the Middles East, but we are not seeing that into the European session.
• The Dollar was printing some earlier lows against some Asian, EM Currencies, ZAR, ILS, TWD, CNY printed new intraday highs, but all in small.
• In G10s, the Dollar is mostly closer to flat, the SEK is down 0.23%, and on the Opposite side the AUD and NZD are the tiny ~0.10% best performers.
• Looking at the past Month, the Greenback is in deep red territory still with the Tariff Risks the main Global concern going forward.
• The closest Technical in G10 is in the USDCAD, with the Next support coming  at 1.3575 Low Jun 13.

• RES 4: $84.23 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.93 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $77.62 - High Jun 13 
• PRICE: $73.52 @ 07:20 BST Jun 16 
• SUP 1: $68.49 - Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: $63.62 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $59.74 - Low May 30 
• SUP 4: $54.33 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures traded sharply higher last week and Friday’s early rally marked an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to remain volatile and from a technical standpoint, the trend is currently in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle. A firm support is noted $68.49, the Jun 13 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

• Bund and Treasuries continue to trade on the heavy side, a little surprising given the escalation in Wars, although some may look at Inflation risks.
• Nonetheless, for now both contracts (RXU5 and TYU5) are trading flat going into the European session, and TYU5 is still just short of 110.14+, Friday's low.
• For the German Bund, support is still seen at 130.52, printed a 130.53 low last Week, and small resistance moves back down to the 131.00 figure.
• Italian Final CPI is the only release for Today, UK and Japan CPIs are the main release this Week, but CBs rate decision are at the forefront this Week.
• Global Investors will also be rolling their Equity Position into September, ahead of Triple Witching Friday.
• SPEAKERS: ECB Nagel (x2) Cipollone.