GILTS: Leading The Wider Sell Off
Nov-12 08:56
Gilts lead the sell off in core global FI markets this morning. * A reminder that this comes after ...
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EQUITIES: Option Expiry in Notional Term
Oct-13 08:52
Equity Option Expiry in Notional Term for Friday 17th October:
US:
- SPX: $1.53T.
- NDX: $61.97bn.
- Amazon: $15.78bn.
- Apple: $17.29bn.
EU/UK:
- SX5E: €117.58bn.
- SX7E: €10.55bn.
- DAX: €17.46bn.
- FTSE: £9.23bn.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Oct13 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Oct-13 08:48
- EUR/USD: $1.1450(E804mln), $1.1570-75(E931mln), $1.1650(E772mln), $1.1700-15(E1.4bln), $1.1750-60(E3.6bln)
- USD/JPY: Y151.00($757mln)
- EUR/JPY: Y174.95-00(E560mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6550-55(A$930mln)
EGBS: 10-year Spreads To Bunds Unwind Friday's Tariff Induced Widening
Oct-13 08:38
10-year EGB spreads to Bunds have partially unwound Friday’s US/China tariff-induced widening, with equities recovering following the White House’s softened weekend stance. The BTP/Bund spread is down 1bp at ~80.7bps, after reaching a high of 82bps on Friday.
- The 10-year OLO/Bund spread is 0.5bs narrower at ~56.2bps. Moody’s completed a periodic review of Belgium’s ratings on Friday, with no action taken. This was in line with our expectations, but markets may have embedded some risk of a downgrade ahead of the event - this is now being unwound. OLOs still face risks though, with Belgium’s debt/deficit trajectory on a similar (if not worse) trajectory than that of France. Markets are still awaiting details of Belgium’s 2026 budget.
- Markets remain sensitive to French headline flow. Lecornu’s reappointment as PM is unlikely to reduce medium-term fiscal/political challenges facing France, so scope for meaningful OAT/Bund tightening still appears limited. OATs currently underperform peers, with the 10-year spread to Bunds little changed at ~83bps.
- Local media report that Lecornu will aim for a 2026 budget deficit of “below 5%”. This will likely be larger than the 4.7% deficit he initially targeted.
