IRAN: Lawmaker-Snapback Sanctions 'Tired Scarecrow'; Raises NPT Withdrawal

Sep-19 09:48

In an interview with semi-official outlet Mehr News, Hassan Ali Akhlaghi-Amiri, a member of the unicameral Islamic Consultative Assembly who sits on the influential Cultural Committee, claimed that the proposed snapback sanctions set to be imposed by the UN Security Council at the behest of the E3 nations (France, Germany, UK) are a "tired scarecrow", incapable of undermining Iran. Akhlaghi-Amiri went on to say that should the snapback sanctions come into force, "we have 90 days to use tools, including withdrawing from the NPT [nuclear non-proliferation treaty]".

  • Speaking to Israel's Channel 12 on 18 September, French President Emmanuel Macron indicated that 'snapback' sanctions will come into force. Asked if they are a done deal, Macron said, "Yes, I think so. Because the latest news we have from the Iranians are [sic] not serious." Macron claimed that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi "tried to make a reasonable offer", but could not gain support from others in the gov't.
  • On the potential for Iran to withdraw from the NPT, a regionally and potentially globally destabilising move, Axios reports that "European diplomats think they won't go that far." The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which warns against the risk of nuclear proliferation, claims that "It would facilitate reconstitution of Iran’s bombed nuclear capabilities and enable Tehran to use them to develop nuclear weapons without international oversight." Earlier in September, the Consultative Assembly held an emergency debate on the prospect of NPT withdrawal. 

Historical bullets

GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: Aug-54 Line Very Weak

Aug-20 09:46

Very weak Bund auction on the Aug-54 line with a 1.03x bid-to-cover and 0.79x bid-to-offer. The low price achieved at the auction was also lower than the pre-auction midprice.

  • The 1.03x bid-to-cover is the lowest seen since 2018 in the German 30-year segment.
  • The line is seeing some contained weakness, printing 85.440 vs 85.560 right before the auction.
  • The Aug-46 line fared better, with solid demand metrics and the low price achieved at the auction above the pre-auction mid.
  • Bund futures came off the highs past the auction.

EGB OPTIONS: Bund rolling Call

Aug-20 09:41

RXU5/RXV5 129.5c spread, bought the Oct for 20.5 in 5k.

EGB SYNDICATION: Finland New 7-year Apr-32 RFGB: Final terms

Aug-20 09:41
  • Spread set earlier at MS + 29bp (guidance was MS + 31bps area)
  • Size: E4bln (MNI expected E3bln but noted upsizing to E4bln was possible)
  • Books in excess of E33bln (inc E2.25bln JLM interest)
  • Maturity: 15 April 2032
  • Coupon: Short first
  • Settlement: 28 August 2025 (T+6)
  • ISIN: FI4000591862
  • Bookrunners: Barclays (DM/B&D) / Bofa Securities / Danske Bank / Deutsche Bank / J.P. Morgan
  • Timing: Allocations and pricing to follow
From market source / MNI colour