FED: Latest Trump-Fed Deliberations

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis have traded to fresh cycle high today. The climb confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6477.31, a 1.618 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6302.01.
• The trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains bullish and short-term weakness for now, appears corrective. Support at 5281.00, the Jul 1 / 4 low, remains intact. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has recently been pierced, a clear breach of it would resume the bull cycle and open 5500.00.

• RES 4: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1917 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021 
• RES 1: 1.1749/1829 High Jul 24 / 01 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.1665 @ 10:40 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.1658 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1559/57 50-day EMA / Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: 1.1446 Low Jun 19
• SUP 4: 1.1405 Low Jun 11  

EURUSD is trading lower today. The pair has breached support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1684. The next key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1559. A clear break of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. Note that medium-term trend indicators continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1829, the Jul 1 high and the bull trigger.

Bloomberg runs the below headlines from ECB’s Kazimir in an op-ed for the Slovakia central bank’s website. 

• "*KAZIMIR: DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING FORCING ECB CUT AS SOON AS SEPT." - BBG
• "*KAZIMIR: UPSIDE INFLATION RISKS PERSIST, WARRANT VIGILANCE"
• "*KAZIMIR: TRADE DEAL `WELCOME NEWS,' CAN HELP LIFT UNCERTAINTY"
• "*KAZIMIR: MAJOR HIT TO LABOR MARKET COULD FORCE ECB ACTION"
• "*ECB'S KAZIMIR: PRE-COMMITTING WOULD BE A `FOOL'S ERRAND'"

This is the first update in over a month for Kazimir, with his latest two-sided comments broadly in keeping with his prior outlook. From Jun 24: “I belong to the governors who think we’ve reached our goal, that we are at the neutral range,”….“I personally would not touch rates before we’ll have a much clearer picture regarding trade-war scenarios.”

Sources pieces since last week's ECB meeting have touched on the high bar seen for the September meeting (for which there is currently just 4bp of cuts priced vs 10bp prior to Thursday's ECB press conference).