US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
• RES 1: 1.3803 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3773 @ 21:21 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A sharp sell-off in USDCAD this week has resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and exposes key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.

• RES 4: 0.6793 1.500 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 1: 0.6707 High Sep 17
• PRICE: 0.6657 @ 21:15 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 0.6579/6537 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg

AUDUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest rally plus the breach of 0.6625, the Jul 24 high and bull trigger, confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The climb opens the 0.6700 handle next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. Initial firm support to monitor lies at 0.6579, the 20-day EMA.

• US Treasuries look to finish near late session lows, completely reversing the initial rate cut move rally - to weaker across the board after the bell with Dec'25 10Y futures just through early session low of 113-08 t0 113-02 (-15.5), 10Y yield +.0439 4.0718%.
• Treasury futures had extended highs after the FOMC annc 25bp rate cut, Fed Gov Miran the sole dissenter in favor of a 50bp cut. Tsy Dec'25 10Y futures climbing +8 to 113-25.
• Still digesting mixed messaging, Chairman Powell: "it's not a bad economy ... it's challenging to know what what to do ... there are no risk free paths. Now it's not incredibly obvious what to do."
• Meanwhile "downside risks to employment have risen," the Fed said in its post-meeting policy statement. "Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated."
• However, a confident sounding Chair Powell on the US economy as a whole and the mixed messages within the summary of economic projections questioned the overall dovish narrative and subsequently the US dollar aggressively reversed higher alongside US treasury yields.
• Focus turns to Thursday's weekly claims Leading Index and Net TIC Flows.