FED: Latest H.4.1 Release Captures End Of QT, But Pre-Bill Purchases (1/2)

• RES 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6661 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 2: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.6537/0.6618 50-day EMA / High Oct 29
• PRICE: 0.6543 @ 17:23 GMT Nov 12 
• SUP 1: 0.6459 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23   

AUDUSD is holding on to this week’s gains. For now, recent strength appears corrective, however, the pair has pierced an important short-term resistance at 0.6536, the 50-day EMA - a level pierced on Wednesday. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bullish case and signal scope for a stronger recovery, potentially towards 0.6618, the Oct 29 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the next key support at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low.       

Cash Treasuries caught up with Tuesday's futures rally in the return to cash trade Wednesday, with TY futures hovering around the week's best levels.

• The curve bull flattened on the day, with Tuesday's poor weekly ADP data continuing to reverberate as we await "official" data following the conclusion of the government shutdown.
• The 10Y Note auction brought a tail (0.6bp) for a second consecutive month, but Treasuries were little moved in the aftermath. The Refunding week concludes with the 30Y auction Thursday.
• Atlanta Fed's Bostic announced his retirement at the end of his term in February 2026, and delivered a speech showing support for holding rates until there were clearer signs that inflation wasn't going to be a threat. NY's Williams repeated previous comments on Fed balance sheet policy, while Tsy Sec Bessent effectively recapped the conclusions from last week's Refunding announcement.
• Latest levels: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.7bps at 3.5638%, 5-Yr is down 4.5bps at 3.6682%, 10-Yr is down 4.9bps at 4.0674%, and 30-Yr is down 4.1bps at 4.6646%. Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) were down 1/32  at 113-00 (L: 112-27 / H: 113-2.5) - having tested key near-term resistance at 113-02, highs seen Nov 5, 7, and 11.
• Attention turns to the House vote expected at 7pm to end the government shutdown. White House's Leavitt said that it was likely October CPI and employment data would never be released - we go over prospects for those and other data releases here.
• With the expected return of government workers to their posts Thursday, we expect to soon get word on rescheduled data. However note that in 2013 we only got the BLS's updated release schedule at 4:30pm on the first day of reopening, so we won't be expecting an announcement on Thursday morning.
• However we are assured of getting some alternative data points Thursday including Chicago CARTS retail sales for October and the Dallas Fed's weekly economic index. We may also get the Department of Labor's official calculation of weekly jobless claims for the first time since the end of September, but either way we will be able to make our own estimates based on state-level data. We also hear from SF's Daly, Minneapolis's Kashkari, St Louis's Musalem and Cleveland's Hammack.

• RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 179.73 1.382 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 179.45 High Nov 12
• PRICE: 179.19 @ 17:19 GMT Nov 12 
• SUP 1: 177.05/175.52 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 3: 173.98 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low   
• SUP 4: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart  

The trend in EURJPY remains bullish and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross has cleared the bull trigger at 178.82, the Oct 30 high, to confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 179.73, a Fibonacci projection, and the 180.00 psychological handle. First support lies at 177.05, the 20-day EMA.