- Treasury futures paring losses after lower than expected ISM Mfg, Prices Paid and Emply data, while New orders surge higher. Construction Spending in-line with expectations.
- Tsy Dec'25 10Y futures currently trades -8.5 at 112-07.5 vs. morning low of 111-31. Initial technical resistance above at 112-20.5 (High Aug 28 / 29). Curves mildly mixed: 2s10s +0.811 at 61.776, 5s30s -0.661 122.322.
- USD weakness comes alongside the uptick in Treasuries: the ISM print boosts EUR/USD back above 1.1650 and makes for a more than 50 pip recovery off the lows in GBP/USD. GBP still the poorest performer on the day, but GBP/USD is recovering losses toward 1.3445 - the intraday 50% Fib.
SWAPS: Latest Dutch Pension Transition Confirmation Steepens EUR Long End
Oct-02 14:13
Note that delayed digestion of news: https://www.risk.net/markets/7962284/pmt-confirms-move-to-new-p...
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ECB: Villeroy: Inflation Allows For Favourable Rates (Bloomberg)
Sep-02 14:13
Bloomberg headlines from ECB/Banque de France's Villeroy:
- "*ECB'S VILLEROY: INFLATION IS WELL UNDER CONTROL"
- "*ECB'S VILLEROY: INFLATION ALLOWS FOR FAVORABLE INTEREST RATES"
- "*ECB'S VILLEROY: URGENT TO TACKLE FRENCH DEFICIT, DEBT CHALLENGE"
On the French fiscal situation, a reminder that the Government is targeting a 5.4% deficit in 2025, 4.6% in 2026 and 2.8% by 2029. Last week, Finance Minister Lombard said he was "confident" in the 2026 projection, though but the median analysts (according to Bloomberg) currently projects a 5.4% deficit next year.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Retracement Mode
Sep-02 14:09
- RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6590.30 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 6543.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 1: 6523.00 High Aug 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6411.50 @ 14:59 BST Sep 2
- SUP 1: 6383.25/6362.75 Intraday low / Low Aug 20
- SUP 2: 6332.30 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is - considered corrective. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 6439.95. The key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 6332.30. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 6239.50, the Aug 1 low and also a key support. Moving average studies still highlight a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 6523.00, the Aug 28 high.
US TSYS: Post-ISM Data React: Paring Losses
Sep-02 14:06
