US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: TYH6 Call Buying Continues

The Atlanta Fed’s business survey for November (link) also offers some anecdotal information on the extent to which recent terminations might be temporary, with almost 15% of respondents suggesting that could be the case. Unfortunately, there isn’t a recent example of this special question to compare with. 

• When asking 466 firms “when you last let go of one or more employees, did you communicate the intent to rehire at least some at a later date”, 61% said no, 11% said yes to some and 3% said yes to all. The remaining 25% of respondents haven’t had to fire anyone.
• The usage of temporary layoffs was fairly consistent by firm size: 12% yes to some and 3% yes to all for small firms through to 9% for yes to some and 2% for yes to all for large firms.
• Instead, there was much larger divergence when it came to those who haven’t used layoffs: 30% of small firms haven’t let someone go vs 10% of large firms (with a resulting 54% of small firms not planning to rehire vs 79% for large firms).
• Planned rehiring was lowest for business (finance & insurance) firms whilst retail, manufacturing and construction firms saw similar modest scope for re-hiring when combined over both “yes to all” and “yes to some”. That said, retail saw the lowest share of responses with “yes to all” at 0%. 

• RES 4: 182.64 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 3: 182.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 181.80 1.764 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 181.01 1.618 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• PRICE: 180.74 @ 17:36 GMT Nov 19
• SUP 1: 179.26 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 178.14/176.30 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 3: 174.82 Low Oct 17  
• SUP 4: 174.51 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low 

A firm bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are 181.01 next, a Fibonacci projection point. Further out, scope is seen for a move towards the 182.00 handle. First key support lies at 177.93, the 20-day EMA.  

• Treasuries mildly extended session lows in the last few minutes, now drawing some modest buying as participants continue to digest the October FOMC minutes discourse.
• While opinions "differed strongly", the minutes suggest that it may only be a minority of the Committee that is pushing for a follow-up cut.
• Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades -1.5 at 112-23.5 after slipping to 112-22.5 low. Attention is on 112-10+, the 100-DMA and 112-06, the Sep 25 low. Trendline support also lies at 112-06+.
• Curves have unwound this week's steepening, 2s10s -.733 at 53.148, 5s30s -.431 at 104.291.
• Projected rate cut pricing has receded from this morning's levels (*): Dec'25 steady at -12bp, Jan'26 at -21.6bp (-22.1bp), Mar'26 at -32.6bp (-33.4bp), Apr'26 at -40.1bp (-41.1bp).
• Cross asset comparison: Bbg US$ continues to climb: BBDXY +6.33 at 1225.76; stocks generally mixed with SPX eminis +13 at 6653.00 while the DJIA trades down 56.92 points (-0.12%) at 45946.4. Crude weaker: WTI -1.31 at 59.43.