US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: SOFR Calls & Large Roll-Outs

• RES 4: 152.70 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg    
• RES 3: 151.30 High Mar 3  
• RES 2: 150.82/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28  
• RES 1: 150.27 High Mar 31 
• PRICE: 150.01 @ 17:04 BST Apr 2 
• SUP 1: 148.70 Low Mar 31    
• SUP 2: 148.18 Low Mar 20 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 147.42 Low Mar 13   
• SUP 4: 146.54 Low Mar 11 nad the bear trigger 

Near-term resistance in USDJPY remains intact. The primary trend direction is unchanged, it remains down and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Key resistance is unchanged, around the 50-day EMA, at 150.82. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger rally towards 152.70, a Fibonacci retracement. The first key support to watch is 148.18, the Mar 20 low. A breach would be bearish.  

CBS News (link) reports the White House is considering the imposition of a flat fee on low-value Chinese imports, and Trump may announce the creation of the "External Revenue Service" at today's 4pm event. 

• The latter wouldn't be a huge surprise - the "America First Trade Policy" executive order that started this process included a directive to the Treasury Secretary to investigate an ERS "to collect tariffs, duties, and other foreign trade-related revenues". But it could also mean we get some more detail on how the new tariff policy will be practically implemented.
• Per CBS: "President Trump is considering announcing the creation of what he calls the "External Revenue Service" on Wednesday as the White House launches his new trade agenda and collects tariff revenues from around the globe, according to sources familiar with the planning."
• "Mr. Trump is also aiming to again alter Washington's trade relationship with Beijing, and will likely charge tariffs on low-value merchandise shipped from China to individual U.S. consumers....Mr. Trump has considered attaching a fee of $25 on low-value packages from China, one of the sources told CBS News."

• RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24        
• RES 3: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8395 High Mar 24 and a key near-term resistance       
• PRICE: 0.8376 @ 16:51 BST Apr 2 
• SUP 1: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support 
• SUP 2: 0.8291 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8251 Low Mar 4  
• SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a bear trigger

EURGBP is trading above last week’s low. The bear leg that started Mar 11 appears corrective and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 0.8316, the Mar 28 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 0.8290, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, clearance of  0.8395, the Mar 24 high, would be a bullish development.