US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Projected Rate Cuts Firm Slightly

• Treasury futures reversed initial post-FOMC move to new highs, back near open levels as Chairman Powell's press conference gets underway.
• Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures currently +4.5 at 110-31.5 vs. 111-08 high (10Y yld at 4.3632% vs. 4.3377% low), key resistance and its recent high of 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be bullish and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 111-30, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Curves steeper, 2s10s +2.007 at 45.290, 5s30s +1.945 at 91.757.
• Cross asset: Stocks firmer (SPX eminis +18 at 6056.5), Gold mildly higher at 3389.15, Bbg US$ index lower at 1206.87 -2.20.

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 145.46/146.28 High Jun 11 / High May 29 and key resistance
• PRICE: 144.74 @ 15:52 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 142.80/12 Low Jun 11 / Low May 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

USDJPY is holding on to its most recent gains. A bearish trend condition remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 142.12, the May 27 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is 146.28, the May 29 high. First resistance is 145.46, Jun 11 high.   

There were only limited changes to June's FOMC statement versus May's (PDF link). 

• The characterization of the unemployment rate is basically the same, now simply "remains low" instead of "has stabilized at a low levels in recent months". Also as expected, the Committee notes now that uncertainty about the economic outlook has "diminished but remains elevated", versus "increased further", suggesting reduced uncertainty vs the May meeting.
• The Statement also keeps "The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate" but removes the following "and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen."
• It's quite likely Chair Powell will characterize these changes as being mark-to-market and removing dated/redundant phrasing rather than reflective of a major change in view on economic conditions, but it will be interesting to hear how he describes the decision - it does sound as though the FOMC is less concerned than it was 6 weeks ago about recession risks for example.