US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
SOFR & Treasury options turned mixed Friday, aside from unwinding Sep options that expire today, SOFR options leaned toward downside put structures while Treasury options included some large 10Y call unwinds. Underlying futures look to finish off lows after completely unwinding yesterday's post data rally. Projected rate cut pricing has consolidated vs. morning levels (*): Sep'25 at -26.5bp (-26.8bp), Oct'25 at -47.8bp (-48.8bp), Dec'25 at -70.3bp (-71.2bp), Jan'26 at -83.3bp (-84.3bp).
- SOFR Options: (Sep'25 options expire today)
- +6,000 0QV5 97.25/97.50 call spds, 2.75
- +10,000 SFRZ5 95.81/95.93/96.06 put flys, 0.75
- 3,000 SFRZ5 95.50/95.87 put spds ref 96.37
- +6,000 SFRV5 96.50/96.62 call spds, 1.5 vs. 96.395/0.05%
- +/-8,000 SFRU5 96.00 combo - unwind
- +2,500 SFRZ5 95.87/96.00 put spds, 0.5
- +8,000 SFRX5 95.93/96.06/96.18 put flys, 1.5 ref 96.37
- +6,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.37/96.50 put trees, 2.75 ref 96.365
- -1,500 SFRV5 96.31 straddles, 13.0 ref 96.365
- -2,000 SFRZ5 95.87/96.00 2x1 put spds w/ SFRZ5 95.81/95.93/96.06 put trees, 1.25
- Block, 5,000 0QZ5 97.56 calls, 4.5 ref 97.08
- 4,000 SFRV5 96.37/96.50 call spds ref 96.37
- 5,000 SFRV5 96.50/96.62/96.75 call flys ref 96.37
- 4,150 SFRV5 96.62 calls ref 96.37 to -.375
- 5,000 0QH6 97.50 calls ref 97.07
- -2,000 SFRH6 96.37 puts, 8.5 vs. 96.60/0.31%
- 3,460 SFRZ5 96.00/96.12/96.25/96.37 call condors, 3.25
- +2,000 SFRV5 96.43/96.50 call spds, 1.5 ref 96.375
- 2,000 SFRZ5 95.75/95.87/96.00/96.18 broken put condors, 2.5 ref 96.375
- 4,500 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62 call spds ref 96.375
- 20,000 0QZ5 97.31 calls vs. 2QZ5 97.25/97.75 call spds, 3.5
- Block/screen, over -31,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.12/96.25 call flys, 0.0 ref 95.9875
- Treasury Options:
- 5,000 TYV5 111 puts, 16 ref 113-08
- 2,700 FVV5 108/108.5/109 put flys ref 109-23.5
- -40,000 TYV5 114.25 calls, 7
- +5,000 TYZ5 111 puts, 16
- 5,000 TYV5 114.5/115 call spds, 3 ref 113-11.5
- 4,170 USX5 115/120 strangles, 127
- 1,200 FVV5 109/109.25 put spds ref 109-22.75
- over 3,400 TYV5 111.5 puts ref 113-14.5
- over 9,600 wk2 TY 113.75 calls ref 113-14 (exp today)
- over 7,300 wk2 TY 113.5 calls, 4 last ref 113-13.5
- 5,500 TYV5 112.5 puts, 7 last
- +2,000 TYV5 112.75 puts, 11 ref 113-12.5
- +3,000 TYV5 113 puts, 16 red 113-12.5
- 2,000 FVV5 109.25/109.5 2x1 put spds
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EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 172.46 @ 15:59 BST Aug 13
- SUP 1: 169.83 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23
A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.83. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.
FED: Atlanta's Bostic: Patient Stance Predicated On Solid Labor Market
Atlanta Fed President Bostic (non-voter in 2025 or 2026) reiterates his view in a Q&A that one Fed rate cut in 2025 is "appropriate", though he says that's predicated on the labor market staying solid.
- On that note, he says that the July employment report "suggests maybe labor markets are a lot weaker than they had been signaling over the previous four or five months. If that's the case, then maybe there is some more imbalance we should be thinking about, and our ability to be patient is much less than it was before".
- Earlier in the day, Chicago's Goolsbee suggested that weaker job gains seen in recent months may represent a drop in population growth amid immigration policy shifts - underlining the uncertainty under which FOMC participants are setting policy.
COMMODITIES: Crude Falls Amid Ceasefire Push, Gold Ticks Up, Silver Recovers
- Crude has declined following reports that Trump will push for a ceasefire in Friday’s meeting with Putin, adding to pressure from the IEA’s lower 2025 oil demand growth forecast.
- WTI Sep 25 is down by 0.9% at $62.6/bbl.
- The IEA has revised down its 2025 global oil demand growth forecasts for both 2025 and 2026, according to the August Oil Market Report. Growth this year is the weakest since 2019.
- With today’s move, WTI futures have pierced initial support at $62.77, a clear break of which would expose $58.17, the May 30 low.
- Meanwhile, gold is off the weekly low, with the yellow metal ticking up by 0.1% to $3,352/oz today. However, the bounce appears shallow at these levels, keeping price within the mid-point of the recent range.
- The phase of weakness into the end of July supported the view that short-term pullbacks are corrective - for now - and the bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. Key near-term resistance is at $3,439.0, the Jul 23 high.
- However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3,334.6, the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a deeper retracement and exposing the next key support at $3,248.7, the Jun 30 low.
- Elsewhere, silver has outperformed today, rising by 1.5% to $38.5/oz.
- Trend signals in silver remain bullish, with sights on $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.
