US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Generally quiet start to the week with London closed for bank holiday Monday. SOFR and Treasury options saw better downside put trade Monday. Rate hike projections through year end inched higher: Sep 20 FOMC is 22.8% w/ implied rate change of +5.7bp to 5.386%. November cumulative of +16.8bp at 5.496, December cumulative of 16.0bp at 5.489%. Fed terminal climbs to 5.49% in Nov'23.
- SOFR Options:
- 6,500 SFRZ3 97.68 calls, .75
- 6,100 SFRZ3 97.62 calls, 1.25
- +2,000 SFRZ3 94.56/94.62/94.75/94.81 put condors, 2.0
- +2,500 SFRM3 97.00/97.50 call spds, 3.0
- -3,500 2QZ3 95.50 puts, 9.5-9.0
- -3,000 0QV3 95.75/96.00 put spds 2.0 over 2QV3 96.25/96.50 put spds
- +2,000 SFRZ3 95.25/95.50 call spds
- 2,000 SFRF4 94.18/94.37/94.56 put flys
- 2,000 0QV3 95.00/95.25 put spds vs. 2QV3 95.37/95.62 put spds
- Treasury Options:
- -5,000 TYX3 108/112 strangles 100-101
- -4,000 USV3 112/116 put spds, 18
- +5,000 wk1 TY 122 calls, 14
- over 10,900 TYV3 111.5 calls, 17 last
- over 3,600 TYV3 108.5 puts, 21 last
- over 6,500 FVV3 106 puts, 30 last
- over 3,700 FVX3 106 calls, 56.5-57
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USDCAD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.3427 High Jun 7
- RES 3: 1.3387 High Jul 7 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3288 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3249 High Jul 28
- PRICE: 1.3225 @ 16:42 BST Jul 28
- SUP 1: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.3032 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull leg
USDCAD remains in consolidation mode and is trading above key support at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A break of 1.3093 would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bear cycle. This would open 1.3084 and 1.3032, Fibonacci projection points. On the upside, clearance of the 50-day EMA, at 1.3288, is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Price Action
- RES 4: 0.6847 High Jul 20
- RES 3: 0.6821 High Jul 27
- RES 2: 0.6746 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6714 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6664 @ 16:41 BST Jul 28
- SUP 1: 0.6619 Low Jul 7
- SUP 2: 0.6596 Low Jun 29 and key support
- SUP 3: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
- SUP 4: 0.6485 Low Jun 1
AUDUSD traded sharply lower Friday, extending the reversal from Thursday’s 0.6821 high. The move down reinforces a bearish theme and note that the pair is trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for weakness towards the next key support at 0.6596, the Jun 29 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6821, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.
US TSYS: Late Roundup: Tsys Hold Midrange, Focus on July Employ Next Friday
- Treasury futures remain in positive territory, off early session highs following a knee-jerk bid on lower than est Employment Cost Index gains 1.0% vs. 1.1% est, Core PCE 4.1% vs. 4.1% est.
- Rates quickly reversed the gap move as markets deemed it an overreaction to near in-line data. Services saw a mild acceleration from 0.25% to 0.275% M/M but importantly the Fed’s preferred indicator of core non-housing services eased a tenth to 0.22% M/M. Softer ECI data an afterthought while benign price pressure evinced from UofM survey helped buoy rates back to middle of the range.
- Tsy curves off early highs, currently mixed w/ 3M10Y -2.594 at -146.816, 2s10s +.600 at -92.849 (vs. -86.190 high) as short end rates lagged the rally in intermediates. As such, rate hike projections through year end remained subdued (18-36% chance of 25bp hike before year end). Markets much more eager to price in rate CUTS in 2024 (first 25bp cut in May '24, second in July'24.
- Focus turns to next week's ISMs on Tue (Mfg 46.98 est, prices paid 44.0 est), ADP on Wednesday (+188k est vs. 497k prior), and July employment data next Friday, current estimate of +200k job gains vs. +209k in June.
- Equity earnings resume Monday, premarket: Immunogen; after the close: Diamondback Energy, Tenet Health, Monolithic Power, Welltower, Rambus, and Western Digital.
