US TSY FUTURES: Late Jun/Sep Tsy Roll Update
Late Tsy quarterly futures roll from Jun'23 to Sep'23 update, 5s and 10s leading volume, 2s not far behind. First notice date is Wednesday, May 31. Current markets:
- TUM/TUU 31,100 from -22.5 to -21.62, -22.12 last, <2% complete
- FVM/FVU 52,900 from -20.25 to -19.75, -20.0 last, <3% complete
- TYM/TYU 49,700 from -27.25 to -26.25, -26.5 last, appr 3% complete
- UXYM/UXYU 3,300 from -101.75 to -100.25, -100.5 last, appr 2% complete
- USM/USU 2,700 from -6.5 to -6.0, -6.25 last, 2% complete
- WNM/WNU 6,300 from -15.0 to -14.5, -14.75 last, appr 1% complete
- Reminder, June futures won't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on June 21, June 30 for 2s and 5s.
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US: President Biden To Deliver Remarks At Rally In Ireland
US President Joe Biden is shortly due to address a crowd at a campaign-style rally in County Mayo, Ireland to conclude his three-day tour of Ireland.
- Livestream: https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/
- Reuters reports: “The tour, a celebration of his close links to his ancestral homeland and deep Catholic faith, has provided a preview of his planned 2024 re-election campaign, with enthusiastic flag-waving crowds, photo-ops with babies and long, loquacious speeches.”
AUDUSD TECHS: Fades Into Friday Close
- RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
- RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
- RES 1: 0.6797 High Apr 13
- PRICE: 0.6712 @ 16:03 BST Apr 14
- SUP 1: 0.6685/6620 Low Apr 14 / 10
- SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
- SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support
AUDUSD topped the 50-day EMA convincingly on Thursday amid broad USD weakness. This works against the broader downtrend, leaving a break below 0.6565 - the Mar 3 low - a requirement for any resumption and continuation of the bear cycle. A continuation higher would open 0.6824, the Feb 24 high and 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement. First support to watch is Thursday’s low at 0.6685. A breach would be seen as an early reversal signal.
US STOCKS: Real Yields Outweigh Initial Bank Optimism
- The S&P E-mini has pulled back off lows of 4138 but remains under pressure at 4149 at typing (-0.6%) as it unwinds half of yesterday’s push higher.
- It comes with the 10Y real yield pushing back towards session highs seen after retail sales, currently +5bps on the day with real yields behind most of the sell-off in nominal yields.
- Nasdaq trims earlier losses to see similar declines (-0.6%) whilst in banks, the KBW index (+0.7%) still sees striking contrast between large banks after positive earnings this morning and regionals currently -2.7%.
- North of the border, the TSX outperforms with 0.0%, with banks gaining +0.5%.
