US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Unwinding Midweek Moves Ahead NFP, SCOTUS

• Stocks are trading near steady (SPX eminis) to mixed late Tuesday, the DJIA underperforming as Treasuries tested technical support and forward rate cut pricing projections consolidated ahead what is still expected to be a 25bp cut by the FOMC tomorrow.
• Currently, the DJIA trades down 130.26 points (-0.27%) at 47612.78, S&P E-Mini Futures down 3.25 points (-0.05%) at 6852.5, Nasdaq up 33 points (0.1%) at 23578.05.
• Health Care and Financials sector shares led declines in the second half:
  • Weighing on the former: Solventum Corp -2.77%, Merck & Co -1.94%, Humana Inc -1.90%, Bristol-Myers Squibb -1.55% and Gilead Sciences -1.36%.
  • Of note, Pfizer is down appr 1% as Bloomberg reports the FDA is investigating whether the Covid-19 vaccine shots caused deaths in adults as part of a safety review that appears to be larger in scope than previously thought.
  • Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase fell -4.39% after warning of higher than expected operating costs, Wells Fargo -1.24%, Citigroup -1.17% and Bank of America -1.06%.
• On the positive side, Energy and Consumer Discretionary sector shares led advances in late trade:
  • Targa Resources +3.42%, Exxon Mobil +2.22%, Halliburton +1.44% and Kinder Morgan +0.99%.
  • Ulta Beauty +2.49%, Airbnb +2.45%, Tesla +2.16% and Best Buy Co +2.03%.

• WTI crude has fallen towards the lower end of the recent trading range on Tuesday oversupply fears as the market awaits updated projections for the future market balance this week.
• With a Ukraine peace deal again looking elusive and Russia likely to continue to find ways around sanctions, the market is focused on the supply outlook with a record market surplus forecast for 2026.
• WTI Jan 26 is down by 1.1% at $58.2/bbl.
• For WTI futures, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key support and the bear trigger is at $55.99, the Oct 20 low.
• Meanwhile, silver has risen to a fresh record high today, with price up by over 4% to $60.7/oz to take YTD gains to 110%.
• As noted, daily ETF flows have supported upside in silver, which has also been boosted by tight physical supply.
• A breakdown in the Gold/Silver ratio may also have exacerbated recent outperformance in silver. With gold rising by just 0.4% to $4,209/oz today, that ratio has fallen below 70, its lowest level since July 2021.
• Trend signals in silver remain bullish, with sights on $60.852 next, a Fibonacci projection point.
• Elsewhere, copper has fallen by 2.2% to $532/lb, with no obvious trigger for the move. Despite this, price remains 7% above the Nov 5 low, amid concerns over tight global supplies.
• From a technical perspective, next resistance is seen at $550.00, the Jul 9 and 28 lows.

As for the new macroeconomic projections, there’s likely to be a slight upgrade to GDP forecasts with some downshifting of PCE inflation in 2025/2026. 

• There is some risk that the unemployment rate forecast shifts up slightly for 2025 but anything above 4.5% would be a major surprise.