US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: New Record High for SPX Eminis

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1743 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 1.1920 @ 19:20 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 1.1574/1.1528 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 5 
• SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30 

EURUSD has recovered from last week’s low. The trend set-up is bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Note that the pair has pierced key support around the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.1607. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key M/T support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. A break would resume the primary uptrend.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index, "which takes into account evaluations of current economic conditions and perceptions of the economy’s direction, is at -20 in August, a bit less negative than the -26 measured in October and -22 in April — but not to the point seen in June, when it rose to -14."

• The Wall Street Journal reports that, “After months of tracking high-income earners’ positive economic outlook, America’s middle-income households appear to be losing confidence”.
• Gallup notes: “Similar to the trend in economic confidence, the 31% of Americans who currently say they are satisfied with the direction of the country is higher than the 26% recorded in late October, as well as the average 22% throughout Biden’s presidency. However, it has waned after reaching 38% in May, the highest of Trump’s second term.”
• Gallup notes: “Partisanship is also at a peak on this metric, with 76% of Republicans saying they are satisfied with the direction of the country versus less than 1% of Democrats. The resulting 76-point gap is the highest Gallup has recorded on this measure, although not substantially different from a 75-point gap in May and 74 points in March and July.”

Figure 1: “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?”

Source: Gallup

• Crude is trading higher on Monday, with Russian supply concerns and Indian buying in focus. Attention is also turning to the next OPEC+ meeting, scheduled for Sept 7.
• WTI Oct 25 is up by 1.1% at $64.7/bbl.
• Overall, Russian crude exports face pressure, running at a four-week low. However, Indian demand remains firm despite US threats and tariffs.
• From a technical perspective, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective.
• Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has risen by 0.8% today to $3,476/oz, amid ongoing questions surrounding Fed independence and focus on the potential for a round of Fed easing.
• Initial US dollar weakness helped the yellow metal rise to a high of $3,490 earlier in the session, before bullion moved away from best levels amid a stabilisation in the greenback.
• The primary trend direction for gold remains up, and sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at $3,500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $3,547.9, a Fibonacci projection.
• Elsewhere, silver has outperformed today, with the precious metal up by 2.4% at $40.68/oz.
• Trend signals in silver remain bullish, with sights on $41.064 next, a Fibonacci projection.