US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Hardware/Software Makers Weigh on IT

Feb-28 19:30
  • Stocks extended session lows briefly late Friday after President Trump and Ukraine President Zelenskyy failed to reach a peace and minerals accord, while Treasuries gained risk-off support ahead of the weekend.
  • Stocks had see-sawed higher after this morning's PCE data that showed a modest decline in inflation while ongoing trade tensions hampered risk sentiment with SPX Eminis still trading around mid-January lows.
  • Currently, the DJIA trades up 79.35 points (0.18%) at 43317.97, S&P E-Minis up 4.5 points (0.08%) at 5880.75, Nasdaq down 5.6 points (0%) at 18540.26.
  • Information Technology and Materials sectors underperformed in late trade, software and hardware makers weighed on the tech sector: NetApp fell 16.55% after missing revenue expectations, HP -8.54%, Dell Technologies -6.62% while Enphase Energy dropped 6.19%.
  • Metals and mining stocks weighed on the Material sector as the late week rout in Gold continued (-32.80 at 2844.72), The Mosaic Co -4.07%, Freeport-McMoRan -2.65% and  Albemarle -2.43%.
  • On the positive side, Energy and Financial sectors outperformed in the second half, Targa Resources +3.92%, ONEOK +3.36% and Kinder Morgan +3.24%led gainers in the Energy sector while banks buoyed the Financial sector: Bank of America +2.63%, Wells Fargo +0.95%, KeyCorp +0.59% and Truist Financial +0.55%.

Historical bullets

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Bear Threat Still Present

Jan-29 19:30
  • RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12  
  • RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
  • RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger 
  • RES 1: 156.75 High Jan 23       
  • PRICE: 155.08 @ 16:29 GMT Jan 29
  • SUP 1: 153.72/34 Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 18  
  • SUP 2: 152.55 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg
  • SUP 3: 151.81 Low Dec 12   
  • SUP 4: 151.06 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg   

USDJPY is trading closer to its recent lows. The primary trend condition  remains bullish, however, Monday’s move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. A resumption of weakness would open 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.        

STIR: Post-FOMC Calls

Jan-29 19:28
  • Block, 5,000 SFRM5 95.87/96.00 call spds, 1.5 vs. 95.765/0.08%
  • Update, over -15,000 0QH5 96.62/97.12 1x2 call spds, 0.75 vs. 96.145/0.05%

STIR: Modest Hawkish Tilt On FOMC Statement

Jan-29 19:15
  • Fed Funds implied rates see a modest climb on the FOMC statement, to extend the day’s increase, mainly helped by the removal of the reference to inflation making progress line.
  • Odds of a cut next meeting are further trimmed to 6.5bp vs 7.5bp prior and a next 25bp cut tilts a little more towards July over June (June to 24bp vs 26bp prior).
  • There are 45bp of cuts priced for 2025 vs 47bp pre-release and 50bp this morning (which had aligned with the median dot last month).
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