LATAM FX: LATAM FX Price Signal Summary – USDCLP Bear Cycle Extends
Feb-07 14:33
- USDMXN continues to trade below the Feb 3 high. The trend structure remains bullish and the recent move above 20.9382, the Jan 17 high, marks a resumption of the uptrend. The move higher also highlights the possible end of a sideways trend that has been in place since early November 2024. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards 21.4007 and 21.5807, the 3.00 and 3.236 projections of the Sep 18 - Oct 1 - 4 ‘24 price swing. Key support has been defined at 20.1343, the Jan 24 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a potential reversal.
- A corrective cycle USDBRL remains in play and this signals scope for a continued retracement. The 50-day EMA has been breached and this has been followed by a break of 5.8675, the Dec 12 low. Sights are on 5.7231, the Nov 13 ‘24 low, and 5.6340, the Nov 7 low. On the upside, a reversal would refocus attention on 6.3165, the Dec 18 high and the bull trigger. Initial resistance is at 5.9398, the 50-day EMA.
- USDCLP has recently breached the 50-day EMA. The clear break of the average highlights potential for a deeper retracement. Note too that the pair has traded through 966.86, the Dec 6 low, and the 960.00 handle. This reinforces current bearish conditions and signals scope for an extension towards 940.35, the 61.8% retracement of the upleg between Sep 27 ‘24 - Jan 3. Initial firm resistance is seen at 985.06, the 50-day EMA.
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BONDS: OAT Block trade
Jan-08 14:24
OAT Block trade, suggest seller:
- OATH5 ~1.66k at 121.86.
There's also wider selling emerging again in EGBs, but small gradual moves for now.
US DATA: Surprisingly Healthy Initial Jobless Claims
Jan-08 13:58
The jobless claims data were on balance a little better than expected. New claims hit their lowest single week since Feb’24 and with the four-week average not too far off at its lowest since April, but continuing claims surprised a touch higher. It looks like the trend of companies managing headcount through slower rehiring rather than layoffs is still intact.
- Initial jobless claims surprised lower at 201k (sa, cons 215k) in the week to Jan 4 after an unrevised 211k.
- The four-week average fell 10k to 213k, its lowest since Apr’24 and through the 2019 average.
- Continuing claims on the other hand were a little higher than expected at 1867k (sa, cons 1860k) in the week to Dec 28 after a downward revised 1834k (initial 1844k).
- Timing of the festive period can make seasonal adjustment difficult but the non-seasonally adjusted 305k is at the low end of recent years.
- Note that by state, the 22.4k increase in NY (which drove the 21.3k increase in national claims) to 37.5k was in keeping with typical starts to the year.
PIPELINE: $4.25B IADB 5Y SOFR Debt Launched
Jan-08 13:56
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/08 $6B *World Bank 7Y +54
- 01/08 $4.25B #IADB 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/08 $1.5B #Kommunalbanken 5Y +48
- 01/08 $1.5B #CoE Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/08 $500M Novelis 5NC2
- 01/08 $Benchmark AIIB 5Y +47a
- 01/08 $Benchmark NWB 5Y SOFR+50a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Ontario 5Y SOFR+58
- 01/08 $Benchmark Northwestern Mutual 5Y +70a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Deutsche Bank 4NC3 fix/SOFR
- 01/08 $Benchmark Codelco 10Y +195a, 30Y +215a
- 01/08 $Benchmark HF Sinclair 6Y +165a, 10Y +185a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Santander UK 6.25NC5.25 +150a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Indonesia 5Y 5.65%a, 10Y 5.95%a
