POLAND: Largest Parties Hold Conventions, President Mulls Proposed Bank CIT Hike
Oct-24 07:28
- The main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) starts a two-day convention in Katowice. Party leader Jarosław Kaczyński will deliver the keynote address at 09:00BST/10:00CEST. Money.pl reported that the party is unlikely to campaign on a platform of significant fiscal loosening ahead of the 2027 elections, with voters increasingly anxious about the condition of public finances. The ruling Civic Coalition (KO) also holds a convention tomorrow, albeit in the form of a smaller-scale event. It will be used to cement KO's merger with a couple of smaller allies (Nowoczesna and Inicjatywa Polska), whose leaders will take on senior roles in the unified party.
- Poland 2050 (P2050) caucus leader Michał Kobosko said that Szymon Hołownia could still change his mind and seek re-election, even though he applied for the position of UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Kobosko added that P2050 will likely contest the 2027 parliamentary election alone. Separately, Polish People's Party (PSL) leader Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz suggested that the baseline scenario is that his party would also register its own lists. The two parties run in 2023 under the banner of the Third Way coalition, which disintegrated soon after the polls.
- Presidential aide Leszek Skiba told Puls Biznesu that President Karol Nawrocki's decision whether to veto a bill raising corporate-income tax rate for the banking sector will not be decisive for the ultimate level of budget deficit, as the government has the tools to boost revenue otherwise. Skiba suggested that Nawrocki has not yet made the decision.
- Poland sold PLN12bn of POLGBs yesterday, attracting demand for PLN13.7bn. Although the full amount on offer was allocated, bid-to-cover ratios were relatively soft, despite positive mood music around the auction.
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: ERH6 98.25/98.37 Call Spread Lifted
Sep-24 07:22
ERH6 98.25/98.37 call spread paper paid 1 on 2K.
GILTS: Futures Through Resistance
Sep-24 07:19
Gilts rally, playing catch up to the bid in Tsys after UK markets closed yesterday.
- Futures pierce yesterday’s high (91.11), topping out at 91.28, with bulls now looking to the September 11 high (91.82).
- Yields 1.5-3.0bp lower, curve flatter, 2s10s ~5bp off last week’s pullback low, while 5s30s is ~3bp off last week’s base.
- The DMO will come to market with GBP4.75bln of the short 5-year 4.375% Mar-30 gilt this morning.
- We don't think that yesterday's disappointing 30-Year auction will have any impact on this auction and continue to expect strong demand at the offering.
- This is because structural changes and fiscal concerns have a much larger impact on the long-end while the short-end continues to see very strong demand when it comes to primary issuance.
- Elsewhere, the DMO has announced that it will launch a new conventional 31 Jan ’41 gilt via syndication in the week commencing 13 Oct’25, matching our expectations.
- BoE’s Greene will speak on supply shocks and monetary policy this evening (17:30 London).
- SONIA futures now flat to +3.0 given the move further out the curve, with BoE-dated OIS still pricing ~6bp of easing through year-end.
SILVER TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
Sep-24 07:04
- RES 4: $44.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $45.128 - 3.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: $44.533 - 3.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: $44.468 - High Sep 23
- PRICE: $44.158 @ 08:04 BST Sep 24
- SUP 1: $41.595 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $39.758- 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $36.965 - Low Aug 20
- SUP 4: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal has traded higher this week as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $44.533 next, a 3.000 projection of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards 45.128, the 3.236 projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $41.595, the 20-day EMA.
