SWITZERLAND DATA: Largest KOF Drop Since March 2022
The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer fell by 6.1 points in April, to 97.1, below consensus of 101.9 and the most pronounced drop since March 2022. This is the first time the indicator is in contractionary territory since December 2024.
- “In particular, the indicator bundle for manufacturing experiences a strong setback. Similarly, the indicator bundles for other services and hospitality are under downward pressure. Solely the level of the indicator bundle for financial and insurance services remains nearly unaltered.”
- Note that by comparison, German sentiment fared comparatively well post-US tariff announcement - the IFO business barometer unexpectedly rose in April; today's release underscores Switzerland's material export exposure (also note that the country will face a high 31% reciprocal tariff in case these will go into effect following the recent 90-day pause). The SNB already noted downside risks to their most recent 1.0-1.5% 2025 growth forecast.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6331/91 High Mar 26 / High Mar 17 and 18
- PRICE: 0.6287 @ 08:04 BST Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged and is trading in a tight range. A S/T bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
US TSY FUTURES: Screen Buyer Of TU Helps Underpin Rally
Note that a 5K screen lift of TU futures at 103-23 helps underpin the space, even as European equity index futures edge away from lows.
EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 161.49 @ 08:01 GMT Mar 31
- SUP 1: 161.13 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 160.66 50-day EMA and a pivot support
- SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support
A bull theme in EURJPY remains intact and recent weakness between Mar 18 - 20 appears corrective. This sell-off allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Pivot support to watch is 160.66, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a deeper retracement. For bulls, sights are on resistance at 164.08, the Jan 24 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.
