OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline

Dec-06 17:18
  • EUR/USD: Dec08 $1.0745-50(E1.5bln), $1.0800(E1.0bln), $1.0900(E1.6bln); Dec11 $1.0720-30(E1.2bln); Dec12 $1.0830-50(E1.2bln)
  • USD/JPY: Dec08 Y148.00($1.7bln); Dec11 Y147.00($1.1bln), Y148.30-50($1.3bln)
  • USD/CAD: Dec08 C$1.3575($1.6bln)
  • USD/CNY: Dec08 Cny7.1810($1.4bln)

Historical bullets

CANADA: Poll-Liberals Face Difficult Task, Even If PM Trudeau Goes

Nov-06 17:03

Latest opinion polling makes difficult reading for Canadian PM Justin Trudeau and his governing centre-left Liberal Party (LPC), with both the party and the PM trailing the main opposition centre-right Conservatives (CPC) by a notable margin. The next election is not due until Oct 2025 at the latest, meaning that there is time for the LPC to stage a rally in support. However, the polling indicates that this might only prove possible with a combination of the following events: a decline in mortgage rates, an improvement in the economy, Trudeau stepping down as leader, the increased likelihood of a CPC gov't under Pierre Poilievre.

  • Polling from Abacus Data, 27 Oct-1 Nov, 2,200 respondents.
    • GE polling: CPC 39% (-1), LPC 26% (=), New Democratic Party 18% (-1), Bloc Quebecois 7% (=), Greens 5% (=), People's Party 4% (+1) chgs w/15 Oct
    • Leader Net Approvals: Poilievre: +8%, Singh: +5%, Trudeau: -24%
    • "Would you be more or less likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau was no longer leader?" No Impact: 52%, More likely: 34%, Less Likely: 14%
    • "Who do you think will win the next federal election?" Poilievre/Conservatives: 43%, Trudeau/Liberals: 20%, Singh/NDP: 10%, Unsure: 27%
  • Former Chief of Staff to ex-PM Jean Chretien, LPC Senator Percy Downe, penned a well-circulated article calling for Trudeau's resignation as a 'prudent course of action.' While Downe's views are not necessarily widespread in the LPC, such articles could raise question marks over Trudeau's longevity as PM.

CANADA: Wider CAN-US Yield Differentials Likely Weighing On CAD Today

Nov-06 17:01
  • USDCAD at 1.3665 is seeing a slight unwinding of the earlier rise to 1.3684, itself having come after lifting off a low of 1.3629 which cleared support at the 50-day EMA of 1.3639. A resumed move lower could a trendline support at 1.3570 drawn from the Jul 14 low.
  • Looking more broadly, the typical drivers for recent moves in USDCAD don’t warrant the intraday lift today. The S&P e-mini maintains particularly narrow ranges to consolidate Friday’s post-payrolls gain and WTI is currently +1.5% to retrace some of Friday’s slide.
  • One factor potentially carrying more prominence is a further drift wider in CAN-US yield differentials, at -49bps for the 2Y and -85bp for the 10Y.
  • Released late Friday, CFTC data showed a fourth consecutive month for CAD net shorts, at least in futures space, at -25%. It compares with -38% for AUD and -22% for NZD.

Source: Bloomberg

ITALY T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Nov 9 12-Month BOT Details

Nov-06 16:58

Italy to sell the following bills at the Nov 9 auction:

  • E6.0bln of new 12-month Nov 14, 2024 BOT (ISIN: TBA)