OPTIONS: Large Euribor Profit Taking And Upside Post-ECB

Jun-05 16:52

Thursday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

  • ERM5 97.9375/98.0625cs, sold at 7.5 in 47k (profit taking).
  • ERH6 97.87/98.37/98.87 call fly bought for 21.5 in 40k
  • SFIM6 96.80/96.90cs, bought for 2.75 in 25k (6k was done vs 96.38.5 and 19k vs 96.38).

Historical bullets

TARIFFS: Trump & Carney Strike Conciliatory Tone In Oval Office 2/2

May-06 16:51

Continued from earlier bullet on the Oval Office press spray between US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. 

  • Opening the spray, Trump teases a “very big announcement” to be made regarding the Yemeni Houthis ahead of his Middle East trip next week – a potentially major breakthrough that could remove a major bottleneck to global shipping.
  • Trump: “It is really, really positive and that announcement will be made possible Thursday or Friday or Monday before we leave… It’ll be one of the most important announcements that have been made in many years.”
  • Axios reports the Houthis have yet to confirm Trump's claim that they have stopped attacking targets in the Red Sea.
  • Trump adds later - slightly cryptically -, that "we're going to have a great announcement and I'm not nessesarily saying its on trade... An announcement that will be so incredible... so positive."
  • Noticably more flustered than during previous comments on Canada, Trump addresses questions on when trade deals will be signed: "We don't have to sign deals. We could sign 25 deals right now if we wanted... They want a piece of our market. We don't want a piece of their market. We don't care about their market."
  • Trump continues: "At some point over the next two weeks, I'll sit down with [Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent] ... Put very fair numbers down and say here is what we want," suggesting negotiating parties can take it or leave it. 

US TSYS/SUPPLY: WI 10Y

May-06 16:49

WI holding at 4.362% ahead of the $42B 10Y note auction (91282CNC1) cut-off at 1300ET, compares to last month's stop: 4.435% high yield vs. 4.467% WI.

LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: FOMC Main Event

May-06 16:48
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 7-May 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-4.2%, --)
  • 7-May 1130 US Tsy 17W bill auction 
  • 7-May 1400 FOMC policy annc (no summary of economic projections)
  • 7-May 1500 Consumer Credit (-$0.810B, $9.387B)