NORWAY: Labour Surge In Latest Poll After Stoltenberg Returns To Gov't
PM Jonas Gahr Støre's centre-left Labour Party has surged to its highest support level since August 2017 in the latest InFact opinion poll for Nettavisen, with the next election now just five months away. While a single poll should not be viewed as a trend, and indeed may prove to be an outlier, this survey is nevertheless notable due to its timing. It comes amid the return of former PM and NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg to the cabinet as finance minister and a week after the agrarian Centre Party withdrew its support from the minority Labour-led coalition due to disagreements regarding the adoption of EU directives on the energy market.
- InFact, Fieldwork: 5 Feb: Labour: 30.7% (+12.3), Progress: 24.3% (-1.8), Conservative: 15.6% (-2.7), Socialist Left: 6.5% (-2.6), Centre: 6.0% (-2.2), Red: 5.5% (+1.0), Liberal: 3.4% (-1.7), Christian Democrat: 3.0 (=), Green: 2.3% (-1.1). Chgs w. 30 Jan, 1,062 respondents.
- The bulk of political focus in recent months with regards to the upcoming 8 September election has been the right-wing populist Progress Party taking the lead in polls (see chart below).
- Should the rise in Labour support prove sustained, it could see a continuation of the current gov't after the election rather than resulting in a (largely expected) shift to the right in gov't.
- Another term for Støre's Labour would likely see the green initiatives pursued in recent years maintained at the expense of the hydrocarbons sector, along with an expansion in social welfare programmes and government spending.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Norfakta, Response Analyse, Verian, InFact, Norstat, Opinion, MNI
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DENMARK: Greenland PM To Meet w/King Following Trump Jr. Visit
Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Egede will meet with King Frederik X at 1400CET amid intense national and international political focus on the future of Greenland. The meeting was initially called off by Egede on the evening of 7 Jan citing 'calendar gymnastics' but was this morning reinstated at an earlier time. This followed the controversial visit of Donald Trump Jr. to the capital, Nuuk, on the same day.
- Speaking at a presser on 7 Jan, US President-elect Donald Trump when asked whether he would rule out using military or economic force to take control of Greenland (or indeed the Panama Canal) Trump responded "No, I can't assure you either of those two. But I can say this: we need them for economic security. We need Greenland for national security purposes."
- In response to Trump Jr.'s visit, Danish PM Mette Frederiksen, only months ago seen as a contender to be the next NATO secretary general, sought to downplay the likelihood of direct US-Danish conflict while also advocating for Greenland's right to choose its path.
- As well as sitting under the shortest aerial route between North America and Europe, Greenland has significant reserves of rare earth elements crucial in manufacturing high-tech equipment such as batteries and semiconductors. Given the prospect of an escalation in trade tensions between the US, Europe, and China in the coming months and years ensuring a stable supply chain for such REEs will be a key economic and military priority for Washington.
EUROZONE DATA: Economic Sentiment Slips, Downside Risk To Growth
- Eurozone economic sentiment softened more than expected in December to 93.7 (cons 95.6) after a marginally downward revised 95.6 (initial 95.8).
- It’s a notable miss and decline just a month after the US presidential election, pushing through late 2023 lows for its lowest since late 2020.
- Historically, this level would suggest downside risk to Eurozone real GDP growth of 0.9% Y/Y back in Q3 (which was helped by a solid 0.4% Q/Q non-annualised in Q3) – see chart.
- The decline goes against the latest tick higher in the S&P Global Eurozone composite PMI for December, although at 49.6 it too remained in mild contractionary territory.
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