UK: Labour Figures Push Back On Burnham's Bond Market Comments
Sep-25 11:02
Speaking to BBC Radio Manchester, Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham treads a fine line on offering support to the gov't while also failing to deny ambitions to unseat Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader and PM. Just days ahead of the Labour party conference, Burnham said "I can't ignore what's going on down there [in Westminster]".
- Labour figures have come out in defence of the PM, with Housing Secretary Steve Reed telling Times Radio that Burnham is taking “pot shots” at Starmer, and has made a commitment to serve his full term as mayor.
- The Sun quotes an unnamed gov't source saying, "Andy’s economic plan is to crash the economy and push up mortgage rates. It’s not serious and the Blairite Burnham from the 2000s knows it.”
- In an interview with the New Statesman, Burnham said on the gov'ts fiscal plans, “We’ve got to get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets".
- In response, Labour MP Callum Anderson posted on X, “To lead a Labour government – and a Labour Treasury – you can’t just dismiss the bond markets. Every pound spent [...] depends on credibility with those who lend to the UK. Real change requires fiscal discipline, not wishful thinking.”
- Hypothetical polling with Burnham as Labour leader will raise further speculation, with a three per cent Labour deficit turning to a two per cent lead over the right-wing Reform UK with a change in leadership.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: $500M Mitsui & Co 5Y Launched
Aug-26 11:01
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 08/26 $500M #Mitsui & Co 5Y +63
- 08/26 $500M JERA Co 5Y +115a
- 08/26 $Benchmark OCBC 10NC5 +115a
- 08/26 $Benchmark BOC Aviation 5.5Y +90a
- 08/26 $Benchmark Bank Saudi Fransi 10NC5 +235a
- Expected Wednesday:
- 08/27 $2B ESM 2030 WNG +42a
- $1.5B Priced Monday
- 08/25 $1.05B *Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) $750M 5Y +73, $300M 5Y SOFR+106
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Remains Present
Aug-26 10:51
- On the commodity front, the medium-term trend condition in Gold remains bullish - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways direction that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first key support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
- In the oil space, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest round of short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high.
US TSYS: Twist Steeper On Latest Fed Independence Concerns
Aug-26 10:49
- Treasuries sit twist steeper following the latest escalation in President Trump’s push against Fed independence, claiming to have fired Fed Governor Cook who has since said he doesn’t have the authority to do so.
- Ahead, data is headlined by durable goods and the Conf. Board consumer survey with its labor differential. Focus will then be on Trump’s remarks at 1100ET before the 2Y auction for an interesting test of front-end demand amidst Fed independence concerns.
- Cash yields are 1.9bp lower (2s) to 3.9bp higher (30s).
- 5s30s sits at 114.9bp (+4.3bps) off an overnight high of 116bps, a fresh multi-year high.
- TYU5 trades at 111-29 (-02) on elevated cumulative volumes of 575k of which a little more than half is quarterly roll related. We estimate more than half the roll has been completed, with higher roll rates in other contracts.
- TYU5 continues to slowly pare Friday’s Powell-driven gains, which saw a high of 112-08 stop short of resistance at 112-15+ (Aug 5 high, bull trigger). Support is seen at 111-13 (50-da EMA).
- Data: Durable goods orders Jul prelim (0830ET), Philly Fed non-mfg Aug (0830ET), FHFA/S&P house prices Jun (0900ET), Conference Board consumer survey Aug (1000ET), Richmond Fed mfg Aug, Dallas Fed services Aug (1030ET)
- Fedspeak: Barkin repeats speech (0830ET)
- Coupon issuance: US Tsy $69B 2Y Note auction - 91882CNV9 (1300ET). Last month’s 2Y auction stopped through by 0.5bp and the bid-to-cover increased from 2.58 to 2.62 but indirect take-up retreated.
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $85B 6W bill auction (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump participates in cabinet meeting with White House press pool (1100ET)
