US: Labor Sec Nominee Julie Su Confirmation Hearing Underway
Apr-20 14:00
President Biden’s nominee for Labor Secretary, Julie Su, is now appearing before the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee for confirmation to Biden's cabinet.
- Despite being confirmed by the Senate in 2021 to the position of Deputy Labor Secretary, Su’s pathway to Labor Secretary is less clear as moderate Democrat Senators facing challenging re-election fights continue to express concern over her suitability for the role.
- Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV), Jon Tester (D-MT), and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) have declined to confirm ‘yeses’ and the vote will also be complicated by the continued absence of Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) who is recovering from shingles.
- Punchbowl: “Opposition to Su centers around the tens of billions of dollars in fraudulent claims allegedly paid out while she oversaw California’s unemployment insurance program during the Covid-19 pandemic. As much as $30 billion was improperly distributed under Su’s watch. That controversy almost derailed her nomination for deputy secretary of Labor in 2021. Su was confirmed on a 50-47 margin with three Republicans missing the vote.”
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STIR FUTURES: Stickier Expectations For Near-Term FOMC Meetings, 2H23 Climbs Further
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- The latest push higher in front end Treasury yields (2Y now +20bps) comes with large increases in rate expectations for 2H23 with a year-end rate now seen at 4.27% for +22bp on the day.
- Stickier expectations for near-term meetings though: 20bp for tomorrow’s FOMC decision and a cumulative 36bps to a peak 4.94% in May (+3.5bps since the start of the US session).
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US-CHINA: Sen Hawley To Introduce Hawkish China Bill Today
Mar-21 13:51
Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) will introduce a bill today to revoke China’s normal trade relations status, apply higher tariffs on Chinese imports, and provide the president increased authority to apply unliteral tariffs.
- Hawley: “As we face a new age of competition with China, we need an agenda in Washington... We can start by revoking the sweetheart deal D.C. elites handed to China 23 years ago - end normal trade relations, put in place strong tariffs, and protect American workers.”
- The mood on Capitol Hill is currently ultra-hawkish on China but it is unclear if Hawley’s bill has enough support to pass.
- A resolution to establish a Select Committee on China passed the House (vote: 365-65) in January and a resolution condemning the Chinese "spy balloon" passed the House unanimously in February but the Senate is seen as more conservative on major foreign policy actions.
- The measures in Hawley's bill would be similar to those applied on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. Politico notes: “U.S.-Russian trade is relatively small, totalling just about $36 billion in 2021. U.S.-China trade, on the other hand, totalled over $650 billion in the same year.”
