UKRAINE: Kyiv and Allies Share Understanding That Ceasefire is Possible

More Trump headlines from Bloomberg - not particularly market moving, Treasury futures already extending highs in the lead up to the June FOMC minutes releaser at 1400ET:

• "MORE TARIFF LETTERS COMING TODAY .. TARIFF FORUMULA BASED ON 'COMMON SENSE'
• ON TARIFF LEVELS: HAVEN'T HAD TOO MANY COMPLAINTS"
• "RELEASING BRAZIL TARIFF NUMBER TODAY OR TOMORROW MORNING .. BRAZIL HAS NOT BEEN GOOD TO US"
• "WILL LOOK AT UKRAINE REQUEST FOR PATRIOTS"
• "CHINA PAYING A LOT OF TARIFFS TO THE US ..  I HAVE A GOOD RELATIONSHIP WITH XI"

• Treasury futures continue to extend session highs after the small 0.3bp stop 10Y auction re-open, focus on the June FOMC minutes release at the top of the hour.
• The minutes should underline the Committee's patience in making its next rate move amid heightened tariff-related economic uncertainty, as encapsulated in the meeting's Dot Plot which showed participants largely divided between no cuts and 2 cuts by year-end.
• Projected rate cut pricing has gained momentum vs morning (*) levels: Jul'25 at -1.7bp (-1.2bp), Sep'25 at -18.6bp (-17.3bp), Oct'25 at -33.7bp (-31.7bp), Dec'25 at 52bp (-49.3bp).
• Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures back near Monday's open, +13.5 at 111-06.5, technical resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high. Volumes slightly below average for this time of day, TYU5 under 990k. Curves have reversed mildly steeper levels: 2s10s -1.867 at 48.587, 5s30s +.042 at 95.225.
• Cross asset update: Bloomberg US$ index near steady (BBDXY +.20 at 1196.84), Gold firmer (+10.87 at 3312.79), Crude firmer (WTI +0.45 at 68.78), Stocks firmer (SPX eminis +18.5 at 6290.5).

President Donald Trump's approval rating has held relatively steady over the past couple of weeks, with a refocus on immigration and national security appearing to put a floor under his net approval. According to The New York Times, Trump's aggregated approval sits at net -8%, largely unchanged since early May.

• According to Silver Bulletin, "44.9 percent of Americans approve of the job he’s doing and 51.5 percent disapprove. That’s a net approval rating of -6.7. Last week? It was -5.5. And the week before that it was -6.0. Over the last two weeks, Trump’s net approval on immigration (-4.2 —> -3.3), the economy (-13.0 —> -11.9), and inflation (-23.6 —> -23.8) also haven’t moved much."
• Silver Bulletin continues, noting this week's refocus on trade and tariffs: "But Trump’s net approval on trade/tariffs has declined from -12.7 to -14.5. We may be in for some more movement on the tariff approval front in the coming weeks ... It’s unclear how all of this will shake out. But last time Trump’s tariff policy took center stage, his approval on the issue (and overall) fell rapidly."

Figure 1: Trump Approval Rating

Source: Silver Bulletin