OIL: Kurdish Official Expects Oil Pipeline Issue to Be Resolved in 48 Hours

• In FX, the trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Support at the 50-day EMA remains intact, at 1.1596. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.
• Strong gains on Friday in GBPUSD signals the end of the recent corrective phase - Friday’s reversal pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. An extension higher would refocus attention on the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, 76.4% of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.
• USDJPY traded sharply lower Friday highlighting a potential bearish threat. The bear trigger has been defined at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 145.40, the 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg.

Latest Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from September'25 to December'25 below. Percentage complete jumped to over a third of outstanding Sep'25 open interest after Friday's massive volume. "First Notice" date next week Friday, August 29. Current roll details:

• TUU5/TUZ5 appr 91,400 from -8.75 to -8.5, -8.75 last; 41% complete
• FVU5/FVZ5 appr 69,500 from -5.25 to -5.0, -5.25 last; 39% complete
• TYU5/TYZ5 appr 198,500 from -1.25 to -1.0, -1.25 last; 38% complete
• UXYU5/UXYZ5 app 138,800 from -0.5 to +0.0, -0.5 last; 37% complete
• USU5/USZ5 appr 25,400 from 12.5 to 13.0, 12.75 last; 41% complete
• WNU5/WNZ5 appr 48,000 from 7.5 to 8.0, 7.75 last; 41% complete
• Reminder, Sep futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on September 22, 2s and 5s on September 30. Meanwhile, Sep'25 Tsy options will expire LAST Friday, August 22.

• RES 4: 113-23   76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
• RES 3: 113-07   76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off 
• RES 2: 112-23   High May 1 
• RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-01+ @ 11:26 BST Aug 25
• SUP 1: 111-13   50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 110-23+/08+ Low Aug 1 / Low Jul 15 & 16
• SUP 3: 110-03   76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 109-28   Low Jun 6 and 11 

A bullish theme in Treasury futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade above support around the 50-day EMA, at 111-13. A clear break of this average would expose support at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, sights are on 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 112-23 initially, the May 1 high.