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US TSYS: Bear Steeper As Cash Trading Resumes
Aug-25 10:12
- Treasuries trade bear steeper with cash trading back underway after UK closures for the bank holiday.
- Friday’s Powell-enhanced steepening has been further extended, with the front end still broadly consolidating the dovish shift on Powell (albeit quite comfortably off highs) whilst 30s extend losses.
- Cash yields are 1-3.7bp higher, led by 20s and 30s.
- Monitoring monetary policy implications from Powell, 2Y yields are currently at 3.707% vs a post-Powell low of 3.673% and ~3.78% pre-Powell.
- 5s30s at 114.6bps easily sets fresh ytd highs having peaked at 112.9bp on Friday.
- TYU5 trades at 112-01+ (-3) on cumulative volumes already at 375k but with more than half of that seemingly from quarterly roll activity.
- Friday’s post-Powell high of 112-08 didn’t test resistance at a bull trigger of 112-15+ (Aug 5 high). Support is seen at 111-12 (50-day EMA).
- Today’s data is focused on regional Fed surveys and housing whilst President Trump comments are watched more broadly, including a meeting with The President Of Korea at the White House from midday ET. Fedspeak from Logan and Williams comes much later in the session.
- Data: Chicago Fed nat activity Jul (0830ET), New home sales Jul (1000ET), Dallas Fed mfg Aug (1030ET), Building permits revisions Jul F
- Fedspeak: Logan speaks at Banxico panel (1515ET, text + Q&A), NY Fed’s Williams gives keynote remarks at Banxico conference (1915ET, text + Q&A)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $82bn 13-w and $73bn 26-w (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump signs executive orders (1000ET – Axios suggests on ending cashless bail), Trump in bilateral meeting with The President of Korea (1215ET)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Futures Bull Cycle Still In Play
Aug-25 10:11
- In the equity space, the dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a 1.764 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Support to watch lies at 6298.61, the 50-day EMA.
- The trend set-up in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high last week. The recent print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and opens 5575.00, the Mar 3 high (cont) and key resistance. Support to watch lies at 5370.47, the 50-day EMA.
BELGIUM AUCTION RESULTS: 8/9/30-year OLOs
Aug-25 10:09
| 3.00% Jun-33 OLO | 2.85% Oct-34 OLO | 3.50% Jun-55 OLO | |
| ISIN | BE0000357666 | BE0000360694 | BE0000361700 |
| Amount | E1.021bln | E933mln | E769mln |
| Previous | E322mln | E970mln | E735mln |
| Avg yield | 2.982% | 3.177% | 4.237% |
| Previous | 2.966% | 2.991% | 4.061% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.80x | 1.58x | 1.70x |
| Previous | 2.34x | 1.90x | 2.14x |
| Avg Price | 100.115 | 97.432 | 87.644 |
| Low Price | 100.080 | 97.420 | 87.560 |
| Pre-auction mid | 99.862 | 97.169 | 87.180 |
| Prev avg price | 100.233 | 98.843 | 90.385 |
| Prev low price | 100.230 | 98.830 | 90.340 |
| Prev mid-price | 100.201 | 98.603 | 89.966 |
| Previous date | 01-Aug-25 | 28-Apr-25 | 28-Jul-25 |
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