US-RUSSIA: Kremlin Talks Up Repairing Ties; Claims Econ 'Satisfies' Army's Needs
Sep-24 10:17
Wires carrying further comments from Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov regarding Russia-US relations and the war in Ukraine, following US President Donald Trump's headline-grabbing Truth Social post (see 'RUSSIA': Kremlin Pushes Back On Trump's 'Paper Tiger' Claims, 09:12BST, and 'UKRAINE: Trump Post Strikes Positive Tone, But Could Put NATO & Kyiv On Notice', 10:14BST)
- Says that "the idea Ukraine can win something back is deeply mistaken", and in response to Trump says "this is not an aimless war".
- It is very unusual for a senior Kremlin figure such as Peskov to call it a "war" in Ukraine, with Moscow consistently calling the full-scale invasion a "special military operation." Unclear if this is a mistranslation, a slip of the tongue from Peskov, or a deliberate shift in wording.
- Peskov claims that "There are lots of areas for profitable cooperation with the US" and that "Russia remains open to this." Says Russia wants to accelerate work to remove "irritants" in ties with the US, and that the process of normalising relations with the US "is moving much slower than we would like."
- Peskov said earlier that there are a number of US firms looking to invest in Russia. On 23 Sep, Reuters reported that Exxon "signed a non-binding initial agreement to help Exxon recoup a USD4.6bln write-down" on its Russian activities since 2022.
- In response to Trump's claims about the poor state of the Russian economy, Peskov says the economy "fully satisfies the needs of the armed forces."
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US TSYS: Bear Steeper As Cash Trading Resumes
Aug-25 10:12
- Treasuries trade bear steeper with cash trading back underway after UK closures for the bank holiday.
- Friday’s Powell-enhanced steepening has been further extended, with the front end still broadly consolidating the dovish shift on Powell (albeit quite comfortably off highs) whilst 30s extend losses.
- Cash yields are 1-3.7bp higher, led by 20s and 30s.
- Monitoring monetary policy implications from Powell, 2Y yields are currently at 3.707% vs a post-Powell low of 3.673% and ~3.78% pre-Powell.
- 5s30s at 114.6bps easily sets fresh ytd highs having peaked at 112.9bp on Friday.
- TYU5 trades at 112-01+ (-3) on cumulative volumes already at 375k but with more than half of that seemingly from quarterly roll activity.
- Friday’s post-Powell high of 112-08 didn’t test resistance at a bull trigger of 112-15+ (Aug 5 high). Support is seen at 111-12 (50-day EMA).
- Today’s data is focused on regional Fed surveys and housing whilst President Trump comments are watched more broadly, including a meeting with The President Of Korea at the White House from midday ET. Fedspeak from Logan and Williams comes much later in the session.
- Data: Chicago Fed nat activity Jul (0830ET), New home sales Jul (1000ET), Dallas Fed mfg Aug (1030ET), Building permits revisions Jul F
- Fedspeak: Logan speaks at Banxico panel (1515ET, text + Q&A), NY Fed’s Williams gives keynote remarks at Banxico conference (1915ET, text + Q&A)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $82bn 13-w and $73bn 26-w (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump signs executive orders (1000ET – Axios suggests on ending cashless bail), Trump in bilateral meeting with The President of Korea (1215ET)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Futures Bull Cycle Still In Play
Aug-25 10:11
- In the equity space, the dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a 1.764 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Support to watch lies at 6298.61, the 50-day EMA.
- The trend set-up in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high last week. The recent print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and opens 5575.00, the Mar 3 high (cont) and key resistance. Support to watch lies at 5370.47, the 50-day EMA.
BELGIUM AUCTION RESULTS: 8/9/30-year OLOs
Aug-25 10:09
| 3.00% Jun-33 OLO | 2.85% Oct-34 OLO | 3.50% Jun-55 OLO | |
| ISIN | BE0000357666 | BE0000360694 | BE0000361700 |
| Amount | E1.021bln | E933mln | E769mln |
| Previous | E322mln | E970mln | E735mln |
| Avg yield | 2.982% | 3.177% | 4.237% |
| Previous | 2.966% | 2.991% | 4.061% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.80x | 1.58x | 1.70x |
| Previous | 2.34x | 1.90x | 2.14x |
| Avg Price | 100.115 | 97.432 | 87.644 |
| Low Price | 100.080 | 97.420 | 87.560 |
| Pre-auction mid | 99.862 | 97.169 | 87.180 |
| Prev avg price | 100.233 | 98.843 | 90.385 |
| Prev low price | 100.230 | 98.830 | 90.340 |
| Prev mid-price | 100.201 | 98.603 | 89.966 |
| Previous date | 01-Aug-25 | 28-Apr-25 | 28-Jul-25 |
