RUSSIA: Kremlin-Strikes On EU & UK Offices In Kyiv Hit "Military Infrastructure"
Russia's Interfax reports comments from Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov. Russia launched the second-largest aerial barrage of the war against Ukraine overnight. Peskov claims that the strikes, which have killed at least 15 and damaged buildings housing the offices of the British Council and EU delegation to Ukraine, were against "military and paramilitary infrastructure facilities". Peskov: "Strikes against Russian infrastructure facilities, often against Russian civilian infrastructure, continue from the Kyiv regime. The Russian armed forces are also fulfilling their tasks; they continue to strike military and paramilitary infrastructure facilities. The strikes are successful, the targets are being destroyed."
- Peskov claims that "The special military operation continues. At the same time, Russia maintains its interest in continuing the negotiation process in order to achieve the goals that we face through political and diplomatic means."
- Asked on the possible establishment of an air ceasefire with Ukraine, Peskov says "No agreements were reached on this matter. I repeat once again: everything that can be discussed in the context of searching for ways to reach a settlement trajectory must be discussed in a discrete manner,"
- European High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas has confirmed that Brussels has summoned the Russian envoy to the EU, but so far there has been no concrete EU or UK response.
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STIR: Next Fed Cut Eyed In October As Docket Begins To Build
- Fed Funds implied rates continue to hold towards their more hawkish levels in recent months for 2025 meetings with a next cut eyed for October.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1bp for tomorrow, 17bp Sep, 28bp Oct, 44bp Dec, 52.5bp Jan and 64bp Mar.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.235% (SFRH7) is just 0.5bp lower on the day and within a 3.1-3.3% range seen through July.
- Today sees a range of data releases starting with international trade/inventories data for June (useful for latest Q2 estimates ahead of Thursday’s advance release) before JOLTS and the Conference Board consumer survey.
- The calendar then accelerates in importance with the FOMC decision on Wed before GDP/PCE/NFPs on Thu & Fri. The MNI Fed Preview incl. analyst outlooks: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jul2025_With_Analysts_002622ac0e.pdf
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 112-15 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 3: 112-12+ High Jul 1 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 111-28 High Jul 3
- RES 1: 111-14+ High Jul 22
- PRICE: 110-27+ @ 11:21 BST Jul 29
- SUP 1: 110-19+/08+ Low Jul 24 / Low Jul 14 & 16
- SUP 2: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 3: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
- SUP 4: 109.25 Low May 27
Treasury futures are unchanged and remain above last week’s low. Recent gains resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, strengthening the recovery. Note too that resistance at 111-13+, Jul 10 high, has been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open 111-28, the Jul 3 high. Key support is 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme. First support is at 110-19+, the Jul 24 low.
BONDS: BTP/Bund spread falls below 80bps, Eyeing next support
BTP/Bund spread falls below 80bps, Eyeing next support:
- As pointed out last Month and Yesterday, looking at that longer term chart, aside from the April 2010 low situated at ~75.4bps, the next big support resides at 65.37bps, the 2009 low.
