RUSSIA: Kremlin Spox-US-Ukraine Talks Debrief Needed Before Ceasefire Decision
Mar-12 10:01
Reuters carrying comments from Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov, saying that the Russian gov't is "carefully studying the statements issued after US-Ukraine talks." He warns against 'getting ahead of ourselves'. Peskov: Gov't "expects [US Secretary of State Marco] Rubio and [White House national security adviser Mike] Waltz to brief Russia on the details of talks with Ukraine in the coming days".
- Peskov does not rule out a phone call between presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, and "this could be organised very fast if needed". Peskov says that Russia needs to hear from the two US officials in talks "before it will comment on the acceptability of a ceasefire for Russia."
- Reuters reported earlier that according to its sources, Putin is sceptical as to the idea of a 30-day ceasefire.
- As Rubio stated following the US-Ukraine talks, "the ball is now in [Russia's] court". With Ukraine now acceding to a ceasefire plan, there is the prospect that the US will turn its attention to forcing Russia to the table at a point when its forces continue to make slow but steady advances in the Donbas and the partially occupied Kursk region.
- As CNN reports, "Even if Russian negotiators can impose their own conditions on the ceasefire [...] it is hard to imagine its greater territorial demands, yet alone the goal of removing NATO from its western flank, would be met. This may also become a decisive crossroads in Putin’s oddly warm relationship with Trump who, in exchange for recent concessions and praise, may now expect the Kremlin leader to play ball."
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
STIR: J.P.Morgan Recommend Using Mar25/Apr25/Jun25 ECB Fly As A Bearish FI Hedge
Feb-10 09:54
J.P.Morgan write “as a short-term bearish hedge, we find paying the body of the Mar25/Apr25/Jun25 ECB-dated OIS fly attractive. “
- They reason that “while not our baseline view, there is some risk of the ECB slowing down the pace of easing by skipping the April meeting as they continue to ease towards neutral, especially if incoming data (domestic and global) surprises to the upside.”
- They caution that “the main risk to this scenario would come from the ECB delivering a cut in April while skipping the June meeting.” But ultimately, they “ascribe a very low probability to such an outcome as the ECB is likely to skip a meeting where they do not have updated staff forecast (April) as opposed to a meeting with fresh forecasts (June) at this stage of the easing cycle.”
EQUITIES: Latest EU Bank Options
Feb-10 09:43
Couple of Bank Options:
- SX7E (20th Jun) 160/140ps, bought for 4.40 in 6k.
- SX7E (20th Jun) 177.5c, bought for 2.45 in 5k.
EGBS: Light Peripheral Outperformance vs Bunds This Morning
Feb-10 09:40
Light outperformance in 10-year peripheral bonds against Bunds, with European equity futures off Friday’s lows. The rally in European NatGas prices is likely helping to contain upside across core/semi-core EGBs this morning.
- The BTP/Bund spread is ~1bp tighter at ~108.5bps, after 106bps once again provided a floor to the spread last week. We look for a 2040 BTP to be launched via syndication in February, although with a decent risk of the transaction slipping into March.
- The OAT/Bund spread is a little tighter at ~71.5bps. However, medium-term political risks remain prevalent despite PM Bayrou surviving last week’s censure motions, after he forced the 2025 budget through the National Assembly using Article 49.3.
- Our Political Risk team highlighted last Friday that there is significant uncertainty surrounding the so-called 'spontaneous censure motion' that the PS intends to bring against the gov't this week. With the PS and presumably the rest of the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance parties in favour, if the far-right RN backs the motion it would be enough to oust Bayrou.
Related bullets
Related by topic
Russia
Gasoil
Marine Oil
Oil Positioning
OPEC
Freight
Jet Fuel
Gasoline
Fuel Oil
Diesel
Oil Options
Energy Data
US Natgas
TTF ICE
Asia LNG
Gas Positioning
Ukraine
US
