RUSSIA: Kremlin Spox Refuses To Comment On Ukraine 20-Point Plan
Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov has been speaking on the latest developments in peace talks involving the US and Ukraine. Says presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev has already reported "in all the details" to President Vladimir Putin about his trip to Miami, where he held talks with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. Peskov says following Dmitriev's visit, Russia has the opportunity to formulate its position and continue negotiations "as soon as possible through existing channels that are currently operating."
- Peskov says it would be inappropriate to disclose to the media what documents Dmitriev brought from the US. The United States is "well aware" of the main parameters of Russia's position on the Ukrainian settlement.
- On 23 Dec, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlined all 20 points of a revised draft peace plan that he says was concluded with the US over the weekend. Notably, this includes the potential withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from regions in the east claimed by Russia as part of demilitarised or 'free economic zones' that had been pushed by the US. This marks a notable shift in Zelenskyy's stance, having previously not countenanced the ceding of any territory.
- Asked about Zelenskyy's presentation, Peskov refused to comment, again claiming that it is inappropriate to talk to the media about ongoing discussions.
- Putin attends a plenary session of the Federation Council (the upper chamber of the Russian Federal Assembly) today as it concludes its 2025 session.
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SOFR: Williams Drove Net Long Setting IN SFRZ5 On Friday
OI data points to net long setting dominating in the whites and blues, while net short cover was most prominent in the reds and greens as SOFR futures rallied on Friday.
- Net long setting in SFRZ5 provided the dominant net positioning swing (~+131K), driven by NY Fed President Williams pointing to room for a rate cut in the "near-term". That represented an ~8.9% rise in OI in that specific contract.
| 21-Nov-25 | 20-Nov-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRU5 | 1,388,750 | 1,392,586 | -3,836 | Whites | +139,565 |
SFRZ5 | 1,608,421 | 1,477,451 | +130,970 | Reds | -34,360 |
SFRH6 | 1,325,180 | 1,338,412 | -13,232 | Greens | -10,613 |
SFRM6 | 1,127,501 | 1,101,838 | +25,663 | Blues | +12,833 |
SFRU6 | 1,155,637 | 1,146,704 | +8,933 |
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SFRZ6 | 1,124,761 | 1,156,173 | -31,412 |
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SFRH7 | 853,151 | 852,033 | +1,118 |
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SFRM7 | 781,118 | 794,117 | -12,999 |
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SFRU7 | 834,038 | 845,673 | -11,635 |
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SFRZ7 | 831,628 | 817,870 | +13,758 |
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SFRH8 | 443,824 | 454,320 | -10,496 |
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SFRM8 | 393,318 | 395,558 | -2,240 |
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SFRU8 | 357,372 | 354,906 | +2,466 |
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SFRZ8 | 332,868 | 327,121 | +5,747 |
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SFRH9 | 191,335 | 192,485 | -1,150 |
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SFRM9 | 191,848 | 186,078 | +5,770 |
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EQUITY TECHS: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bear Cycle Cycle Still in Play
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain in a short-term bear-mode condition and weakness last week reinforces current conditions. The breach of 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancels recent bullish signals and signals scope for an extension of the corrective cycle. Sights are on 6540.25 (pierced), the Oct 10 low and a key support. A clear break of it would open 6476.62, the 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 uptrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6735.63, the 20-day EMA.
- Last week’s sell-off in EUROSTOXX 50 futures highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The contract has breached two key support points; 5597.64, the 50-day EMA, and 5626.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. The breach signals scope for a deeper pullback and opens 5427.01, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - Nov 13 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5633.27, the 20-day EMA.
EGBS: 50-day EMA Resistance Contains Upside In Bund Futures For Now
The 129.00 figure has contained upside in Bund futures this morning, keeping resistance at the 50-day EMA of 129.04 intact. Rallies short of this level will be considered corrective for now. Bunds are + 3 ticks at 128.89 at typing.
- The German curve has bull flattened, with yields flat to 2bps lower on the session. Modest downside in oil/gas futures and a move away from highs for equities have provided background support for bonds.
- Long-end German ASWs saw a brief bout of widening pressure after an interview with an Executive Board member of the DFA was released. However, the moves quickly faded. Although DFA will take into account term premium when considering the maturity structure of next year’s debt sales, total issuance could still exceed E500bln.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are marginally narrower on the session. No material underperformance for OATs after the National Assembly rejected the Revenue section of the 2026 budget over the weekend. Meanwhile, Italy’s ratings upgrade from Moody’s was in line with expectations.
- In data, the German November IFO Business Climate Index fell slightly, underperforming expectations at 88.1 (88.5 consensus, 88.4 prior). The current assessment reading improved marginally this time (85.6 vs 85.5 cons; 85.3 prior) but remained within recent ranges at a subdued level, while expectations were the driver behind the overall deterioration (90.6 vs 91.6 cons and prior).
- This week’s primary regional focus is the November flash inflation round, which begins on Friday.
