RUSSIA: Kremlin Spox Looks To Cast Doubt On Trump "Threat" To Bomb Moscow
Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov speaks on US President Donald Trump's comments at a Cabinet meeting on 8 July, Peskov says that "We are quite calm about this", adding "Trump has a rather tough style in the phrases he uses." Asked about a series of massive air and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, Trump said, “I’m not happy with Putin, I can tell you that much right now, because he’s killing a lot of people. We get a lot of bulls--- thrown at us by Putin. You want to know the truth. He is very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.” Trump added that he was looking at the prospect of stricter sanctions on Russia "very strongly".
- Following the publication of a CNN story claiming that in a recording, Trump threatened Putin with bombing Moscow, Peskov says it is "unclear to us if this is fake or not." The report claims Trump, during a donor event during his 2024 presidential campaign said “With Putin I said, ‘If you go into Ukraine, I’m going to bomb the sh*t out of Moscow. I’m telling you I have no choice,[...] And then [Putin] goes, like, ‘I don’t believe you.’ But he believed me 10%.”
- Peskov claims that Putin and Trump did not hold calls during the period Trump was out of office when the full-scale invasion of Ukraine was launched, saying, "The thing is that there were no telephone conversations then. After all, as far as I understand, we are talking about the period when Trump was not yet the President of the United States,"
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Historical bullets
US TSY OPTIONS: TYQ5 112.50 Calls Lifted
Recent flow in the TYQ5 112.50 calls saw paper pay 0-16 on 5K.
EQUITIES: US and EU Roll Views ahead of Triple Witching
Looking ahead to the Equity Roll, couple of views: Triple Witching is the 20th June.
JPM on US:
- They see the Rolls mostly trading rich vs Fair value, as such they are more tilted to the bearish side in the SPX, NDX, and RTY.
- But they add that the US CPI this Week, the FOMC on the 18th June, as well spot moves, could dampen some of that View.
JPM on EU:
- While they don't see Positioning as long as it was during Q1, they anticipate some early Long Positions to be rolled early in the main European Indices.
GILTS: Early Rally Fades A Little, Curve Flatter
Gilts are off session highs after looking to Tsys and Bunds for cues for much of the morning.
- Futures trade as high as 92.17 before easing back to ~92.00, sticking within Friday’s range.
- The contract still trades closer to recent highs. The latest rally undermines the bearish theme. Key short-term resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high, has been cleared. This signals scope for an extension higher and sights are on 92.79, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support has been defined at 91.44, the Jun 4 low.
- Yields 0.5-2.0bp, curve flatter.
- 2s10s ~61bp, recent breaks below 60bp haven’t been sustained.
- 5s30s ~117bp, after forcing the first sub-120bp closes since early April last week.
- GBP STIRs still trade around levels flagged pre-gilt open, showing ~40bp of cuts through December.
- UK headline flow remains limited ahead of tomorrow’s labour market report and Wednesday’s spending review.
- A reminder that the BoE has shifted its focus to survey-based labour market inferences given the ongoing issues with the ONS data.
- Meanwhile, the spending review contains plenty of political hurdles for PM Starmer & Chancellor Reeves to navigate (as we have already detailed in earlier bullets and our Global Week Ahead).
- Expect our deeper previews of both events in due course.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-25 | 4.218 | +0.6 |
Aug-25 | 4.062 | -15.0 |
Sep-25 | 4.021 | -19.1 |
Nov-25 | 3.879 | -33.3 |
Dec-25 | 3.817 | -39.5 |
Feb-26 | 3.725 | -48.7 |
Mar-26 | 3.705 | -50.7 |
