AMERICAS OIL: Kpler’s Shale Price Scenarios
Oct-29 17:26
Kpler's 6-month forecast expects WTI to hover near $60/b, with a temporary dip into the $50/b rang expected.
- Kpler see fundamentals improving in H2 2026 as non-OPEC+ supply growth peaks, aiding a price recovery.
- The current resilience in US shale output, despite WTI hovering around $60/b, comes from significant efficiency gains, which are offsetting declines in active rig counts.
- a lasting $55/b WTI scenario would cause little change to the supply forecast, Kpler said. This price level would drive US rig counts down to around 300 from current 320. Half of the decline would be in the Permian.
- A $50/b WTI scenario tests the breakevens for larger producers and while they can maintain operations below $50/b, this price level would enforce cautious activity for most.
- Supply is exposed to a potential 700k b/d drop by Q4 if WTI maintains $50/b as natural declines take over, Kpler added.
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SOFR OPTIONS: Nov'25 SOFR Strangle Strip Buyer
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- +6,000 SFRX5 95.50/97.00 strangle w/ 95.75/96.87 strangle, 1.25 total for package
