Kpler expects China crude imports to slip in Q4 from October levels of ~11mn bpd driven by weaker refinery runs.
- Kpler also expects to see limited upside for Chinese oil demand growth in 2024 with demand upside more likely to come from India and Southeast Asia.
- It expects oil prices to fall by $6-7/bbl from current levels and does not think OPEC+ cuts will prevent crude from falling.
- Chinese buying of crude from Iran, Venezuela, Russia totaled 2.6m b/d ytd, or a quarter of its imports Kpler said.