CZK: Koruna Under Pressure, Retail Sales Miss Expectations
The koruna has lost ground today, underperforming its EMEA peers. When this is being typed, EUR/CZK changes hands +0.050 at 25.080 and bulls look for a clearance of the nearby 50-DMA at 25.098. Conversely, a pullback under the 25.0 mark would bring Feb 26 low of 24.896 into play.
- Czechia's ex-auto retail sales expanded by 2.8% Y/Y in January, missing the +4.2% consensus forecast. Komercni banka noted that "compared to previous months, households spent more on services than on goods," adding that "household consumption should continue to recover, but declining consumer sentiment may slow its growth."
- CZGB sit a touch lower, curve runs slightly steeper.
- The PX Index has added 0.7% this morning.
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COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Extend Recovery Off Last Week's Lows
Recent weakness in WTI futures marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.20. Price has traded through the average, a clear break of it would suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $68.05, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. On the upside, a clear reversal higher would refocus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance. A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal has again traded to a fresh cycle high. The continued appreciation once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2776.3, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude up $0.83 or +1.15% at $73.17
- Natural Gas up $0.05 or +1.48% at $3.492
- Gold spot down $2.06 or -0.07% at $2908.02
- Copper down $7.65 or -1.63% at $462.9
- Silver down $0.27 or -0.85% at $31.787
- Platinum down $4.19 or -0.42% at $987.84
EQUITIES: Eurostoxx 50 Futures Holding Onto Gains, Bull Cycle Remains in Play
Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their recent gains and a bull cycle remains in play. Last week’s gains marked a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 21 ‘24. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The focus is on 5381.13 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5211.11, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 5094.95. The initial sell-off on Feb 3 in the S&P E-Minis contract and the breach of support at 5948.00, Jan 27 low, continues to highlight a possible S/T reversal threat. If correct, it suggests that the latest bounce is a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, a stronger rally would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.
- In China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 4.113 pts or -0.12% at 3318.057 and the HANG SENG ended 227.12 pts lower or -1.06% at 21294.86.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 8.06 pts or +0.04% at 21944.46, FTSE 100 lower by 1.7 pts or -0.02% at 8764.82, CAC 40 down 2.76 pts or -0.03% at 8009.47 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.79 pts or +0.01% at 5364.12.
- Dow Jones mini down 106 pts or -0.24% at 44482, S&P 500 mini down 20 pts or -0.33% at 6070.25, NASDAQ mini down 92 pts or -0.42% at 21758.5.
