CZK: Koruna Gains, CNB Speak Under Microscope
Dec-11 10:58
EUR/CZK has come under pressure as the greenback has held onto most of its post-Fed losses, with locally-oriented market participants scrutinising the latest rounds of CNB speak. The pair last deals -0.028 at 24.218 and bears continue to keep an eye on the psychologically significant 24.0 level. On the flip side, a clearance of the 50-DMA (24.265) would open up the 100-DMA (24.350).
- CNB's Kubíček said that it is more likely the next move in rates will be a hike rather than a cut, but he was unable to give any indication about the possible timing. The official noted that market bets on a 2026 hike 'look premature'. Separately, Jakub Seidler said that the Bank Board needs to remain flexible, while interest rates will likely remain on hold for some time.
- CZGBs are mostly a touch firmer; the PX Index holds steady near all-time highs.
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EQUITY OPTIONS: Large EU Bank Put trade
Nov-11 10:48
SX7E (20th Mar) 170p, traded at 1 in 20k (unconfirmed seller).
BOE: ILTR take up should alleviate some funding mkt pressures but it settles T+2
Nov-11 10:47
- The only time we have seen higher net ILTR takeup than in today's operation was the first week of the Covid pandemic and two weeks ago when there was the huge TFSME repayment.
- This operation only settles T+2 so it might not fully alleviate the pressures seen in repo markets that are still evident in RONIA-Bank Rate spreads at present. But the high takeup does indicate that we may not need quite as large of an increase in STR holdings on Thursday to bring UK funding markets back into more of an equilibrium.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Price Signal Summary - Bullish EUROSTOXX50 Futures Theme
Nov-11 10:45
- In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the pullback since the Oct 30 high appears corrective. The contract has managed to find support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6716.03 and a key support. Last Friday’s activity also highlights a potential reversal signal - a bullish doji candle. This defines key support at 6655.50, the Oct 7 low. A continuation higher would signal the end of a correction and open 6953.75, the Oct 30 high and bull trigger.
- A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Price has managed to find support below two important price points; the 50-day EMA, at 5580.70, and 5577.00, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. A clear break of both levels would strengthen a bear theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Sights are on the bull trigger at 5742.00, the Oct 29 high.
