FOREX: Kiwi Dollar Extends Relief Rally, EURNZD Tests Cluster Support
Nov-27 11:07
- NZD outperforms again as New Zealand retail sales and sentiment data supports renewed optimism following Wednesday's "hawkish" cut from the RBNZ. NZDUSD briefly extended its recovery from the Nov 21 cycle lows to 2.7%, and a positive close today would mean the fifth consecutive winning session for the pair.
- Outgoing Governor Hawkesby noting the bar is high for further cuts, alongside the optimism for risk sentiment, provide sufficient tailwinds for the Kiwi to extend the correction higher. 0.5800 remains a key medium-term pivot.
- Relative underperformance for the Euro has prompted EURNZD to decline a further 0.35% today, bridging the gap to a key cluster of support (both the 50-day EMA and the bottom of the bull channel being tested – shown below). A daily/weekly close below this area would certainly alter the short-term trend, enhancing the likelihood of a greater corrective pullback towards pivot support at 2.00.
- New RBNZ Governor Anna Breman, from Sweden's Riksbank, takes over next Monday, December 1. Breman is an experienced economist, previously Chief Economist and Global Head of Macro Research at Swedbank before her time at the Riksbank. Her new role should not be expected to prompt a major tilt in the RBNZ's policy stance ahead. Still, we watch for any rhetoric in her public appearances once these will be scheduled.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
Oct-28 11:03
- RES 4: 115-00+ High Oct 1 ‘24 (cont)
- RES 3: 114-21+ 1.00 proi of the Aug 18 - Sep 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont) and a key resistance
- RES 1: 113-24/114-02 High Oct 24 / 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 113-16 @ 10:52 GMT Oct 25
- SUP 1: 113-04 Low Oct 27
- SUP 2: 112-26 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 112-16+ Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 112-06 Low Sep 25 and a reversal trigger
A bullish structure in Treasuries is intact and recent weakness appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 114-02, the Oct 24 high and a bull trigger. A breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend, and open 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont). Support to watch is 112-26, the 50-day EMA.
EGB SYNDICATION: New 12-Year SlovGB: Revised Guidance
Oct-28 11:01
- EUR Benchmark (MNI expects E1.5-E2.5bln) of the new 12-year Nov-37 SlovGB
- Revised guidance: MS+100 Area (guidance was MS+105 Area)
- Books in excess of E3.1bln
- Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA
- Format: Reg S CAT1, bearer
- Settlement: Nov. 4, 2025 (t+5)
- ISIN: SK4000028304
- Bookrunners: Citi, CSOB, DB (B&D), JPM
- Timing: May price today
Per Bloomberg / DJ, with MNI color
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bull Cycle Extends
Oct-28 10:54
- In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract traded higher Monday, as it started the week on a bullish note. The fresh cycle high confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The 6900.00 handle has been cleared, opening 6953.25 next, a 2.000 projection of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing. Initial firm support to watch lies at 6748.48, the 20-day EMA.
- The trend structure in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is bullish. Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces a bull theme and maintains the rising price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 5727.18, a 1.236 projection of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing. First support lies at 5625.31, the 20-day EMA.
