UK: King's Speech Expected 12/13 May 2026
- The BBC has reported that the next King's Speech (which sets out the UK's legislative agenda) is likely to be held on Tuesday 12 or Wednesday 13 May 2026.
- Local elections are due to be held the preceding week on Thursday 7 May - and are expected to be the next litmus test for the government, with polls currently pointing to Labour losing a lot of seats, particularly to Reform UK.
- It is likely that the government will aim for the King's Speech to set the next agenda for parliament in response to any Labour underperformance.
- The BBC report states that "One government source told the BBC: "It will be much harder for somebody to challenge the PM and say we need to go in a different direction when the King is about to come to parliament to announce what we're doing for the next year.""
- Full BBC story here
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USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 156.75 High Jan 23
- RES 3: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 2: 155.53 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 1: 155.38 Intraday high
- PRICE: 155.06 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 153.49 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 152.82 Low Nov 7
- SUP 3: 151.58 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21
USDJPY traded higher Monday, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and builds on recent gains. The 155.00 handle has been cleared and sights are on 155.53 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch is 153.49, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a corrective pullback.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Breaches Key Support Points
- RES 4: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 3: 5825.00 High Nov 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 5744.00 High Nov 14
- RES 1: 5679.90 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5570.00 @ 06:39 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 5556.00 Low Nov 17
- SUP 2: 5503.00 50.0% retracement of the Aug 1 - Nov 13 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 5458.00 Low Sep 26
- SUP 4: 5427.01 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - Nov 13 bull cycle
A M/T bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact, however, the latest sell-off highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The move down this week has resulted in the breach of two key support points; 5606.50, the 50-day EMA, and 5604.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. The breach signals scope for a deeper pullback and opens 5503.00, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 5675.90, a Fibonacci retracement.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply Daily
The EU, Slovakia, Finland, Spain and France will all look to come to the market this week while Italy looks to hold a buyback auction. We pencil in issuance of E25.5bln for the week, up from E13.0bln last week.
- The EU has sent a mandate for a tap of the 2.50% Oct-30 (ISIN: EU000A4EG021). The transaction will be launched today, subject to market conditions. Probably a smaller syndication than some had expected. Just a single line and only 5-year maturity (but we are coming to the end of the year). MNI pencils in a E5-6bln size.
- Slovakia will kick off auction issuance for the week today with its last auction of the year (ARDAL has already confirmed that the December reserve auction will not take place). On offer will be the 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024683), the 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000018958), the 4.00% Feb-43 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022547) and the 2.00% Oct-47 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120013400).
- We have not seen a Slovak auction with two SlovGBs on offer with residual maturities in excess of 15 years for at least seven years.
- Finland will also look to hold its last conventional auction of 2025 today. As expected the 10-year on-the-run 3.00% Sep-35 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000587415) will be one of two RFGBs on offer with the on-the-run 30-year 2.95% Apr-55 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000566294).
- Italy has announced a buyback auction for Wednesday for up to E5.0bln. The MEF will look to buyback the 3.50% Jan-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005514473), the 0% Apr-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005437147), the 3.80% Apr-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005538597), the 3.85% Sep-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005556011) and the Apr-26 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005428617).
