USDJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 160.21 2.236 proj of the Dec 5 - 9 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 3.000 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 159.60 2.000 proj of the Dec 5 - 9 - 16 price swing 
• RES 1: 159.45 Cycle High
• PRICE: 158.15 @ 15:59 GMT Jan 14 
• SUP 1: 156.90/155.61 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 154.35 Low Dec 5 and a reversal trigger  
• SUP 3: 153.62 Low Nov 14 
• SUP 4: 152.82 Low Nov 7

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat, despite the fade off highs. The pair has cleared resistance at 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. This  maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on the 160.00 handle next,  a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 155.61, the 50-day EMA.  

The Atlanta Fed's latest estimate of Q4 GDP has ticked up to 5.30% Q/Q SAAR vs 5.13% in the prior estimate on January 9.

• The biggest single driver to the upward revision was equipment investment, which following the Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report is now seen contributing 0.04pp to GDP in the quarter (vs -0.04% in the prior estimate), a +0.08pp contribution shift with the Atlanta Fed showing a positive growth rate in this column for the first time since it initiated the Q4 nowcast on December 23 (equipmant investment posted 5.4% Q/Q SAAR growth in Q3 and 8.5% in Q2 so this would be a slowdown either way).
• The PCE forecast has been upped to 3.1% from 3.0%, reflecting a solid November retail sales release earlier in the day; we had thought the Nowcast could actually edge lower given the downward revision to Control Group sales in October but the Atlanta Fed may have previously underestimated the strength in November; it still expects a slowdown in quarterly PCE growth at a still-high level (3.1% Q/Q SAAR vs 3.5% in Q3).
• Also contributing a little more are net exports (up 0.02pp to 1.99pp) and government spending (up 0.04pp to 0.27pp, following the federal monthly budget statement).
• But those latter two contributions - plus inventories' 0.82pp - mean that private final demand in the quarter is estimated to slow to the mid-2s from the 3.0% in Q3 and 2.9% in Q2, so in this respect underlying economic activity is moderating despite the gawdy headline estimate.

$27.15B total corporate bonds to price Wednesday:

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 01/13 $6B #JPMorgan $2.6B 6NC5 +63, $400M $6NC5 SOFR, $3B 11NC10 +76
• 01/14 $5B *KFW 5Y SOFR+29
• 01/14 $2B #IFC 3Y SOFR+22
• 01/13 $2B *CABEI 3Y +49
• 01/14 $1.5B #OKB 5Y SOFR+34
• 01/14 $1.5B *CDP Fncl 5Y SOFR+42
• 01/14 $1.55B #Bank of NY Mellon $1.25B 4NC3 +47, $300M 4NC3 SOFR+63
• 01/14 $1.5B #ANZ NZ $500M 3Y +45, $500M 3Y SOFR+61, $500M 5Y SOFR+75
• 01/14 $1.5B #Azule Energy $850M 5NC2 8.25%, $650M 7NC3 8.625%
• 01/14 $1B #MassMutual Global $600M 3Y +50, $400M 3Y SOFR+66
• 01/13 $1B #Aviation Capital $400M +3Y+83, $600M 7Y +115
• 01/13 $1B #Jabil $500M 3Y +67, $500M 7Y +97
• 01/14 $1B *AfDB WNG 10Y SOFR+41
• 01/13 $600M #SQM 30.25NC5 5.625%