GOLD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16
- RES 1: $3373.6/3439.0 - High Jul 25 / 23
- PRICE: 33446.6 @ 15:04 BST Aug 1
- SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3319.9, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.
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SOFR OPTIONS: Morning Roundup
Mixed trade since the open - two-way with call volume outpacing puts. Underlying bear steepening sees projected rate cut pricing firming slightly vs. morning (*) levels: Jul'25 at -5.8bp (-4.8bp), Sep'25 at -29.6bp (-28.1bp), Oct'25 at -46.3bp (-44.3bp), Dec'25 at -65.5bp (-63.5bp).
- -5,000 SFRN5 95.75/95.93/96.00/96.18 call condors, 13.25 - more offered
- -5,000 SFRN5 96.00 calls, 4.5-4.25 ref 95.99
- +5,000 SFRU6 98.00/99.00 2x3 call spds, 8.0 ref 96.86
- +5,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.25/96.50 1x3x2 call flys, 2 ref 96.00
- 3,700 SFRZ5 96.37/96.43/96.50/96.56 call condors ref 96.325
- 2,500 3QQ5 96.37/96.50 2x1 put spds ref 96.55
- -2,000 SFRN5 95.75/95.87/96.00 put flys, 3.5
STIR: Hawkish Adjustments In GBP STIRs Surrounding Reeves' Future
GBP STIR curves have also hawkishly steepened on speculation surrounding the future of Chancellor Reeves.
- The potential departure of Reeves could result in a watering down of the UK’s fiscal rules, limiting the BoE’s room to ease.
- BoE-dated OIS now little changed to 2bp less dovish on the day across ’25 meetings.
- Over 80% odds of a 25bp cut still priced for August, with such a step fully discounted through the September meeting.
- December meeting pricing shows ~53bp of cumulative cuts after failing to move decisively through 55bp of cuts in recent sessions.
- SONIA futures last 0.5-16.0 lower.
- SFIZ5/Z6 steepens away from year-to-date lows in the -25.0 area to print -20.0 last.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-25 | 4.010 | -20.7 |
Sep-25 | 3.945 | -27.2 |
Nov-25 | 3.777 | -44.0 |
Dec-25 | 3.690 | -52.7 |
Feb-26 | 3.561 | -65.6 |
Mar-26 | 3.530 | -68.7 |
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Approaching Key Resistance
- RES 4: 6300.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6281.12 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 6277.50 High Feb 19 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 6270.75 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6242.75 @ 14:45 BST Jul 3
- SUP 1: 6102.47/5975.80 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 5811.50 Low May 23
- SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
- SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract has continued to appreciate, this week. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. The 6200.00 handle has been cleared too, this opens 6277.50, the Feb 21 high and bull trigger. Key support is at the 50-day EMA - at 5975.80.
