SECURITY: Key MSC Speakers Over The Weekend (2/2)

Quebec Premier Francois Legault is set to stand down, according to French-language outlet La Presse. Following a summons to members of his conservative Quebec nationalist Coalition Avenir Québec (Coalition for the Future of Quebec, CAQ) sent at 09:45ET, La Presse reports widespread expectations that Legault will announce his resignation in a Quebec City presser at the top of the hour. 

• Quebec must hold elections to its National Assembly by 5 October at the latest. After securing majorities in the 2018 and 2022 elections, support for the CAQ has plummeted to the point it now sits in third or fourth place in most opinion polls, behind the sovereigntist centre-left Parti Québécois, the centre-left Quebec Liberal Party, and the right-wing Conservative Party of Quebec. As the Montreal Gazette noted in Nov 2025, "...voter intention seems to be returning to the political dynamic that prevailed in Quebec for more than four decades, when the fight for power was a duel between the PQ and the Liberals."
• Legault's efforts to push for a Quebec Provincial Constitutional Act have proved controversial, while a new law on doctors' compensation has sparked a backlash in the healthcare sector.
• Legault is the founder of the CAQ, and up until the end of last year, insisted he intended to run in the 2026 election. There is no clear successor or succession plan, meaning the party faces significant upheaval in finding its second-ever leader ahead of the provincial vote. 

EURNOK is narrowing the gap to trendline support drawn from the April 2025 low, intersecting at 11.6909 today. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open the November 14 low at 11.6301 and the round-number 11.6000 figure. An impending cross of the 20- and 50-day EMAs also strengthens a bearish threat. 

• EURNOK is down 0.3% at 11.7123 today. Crude oil futures are up almost 1% due to an increasing geopolitical risk premium amid heightened US-Iran tensions, outweighing concerns of a global oversupply. Meanwhile, the EURNOK 2-year swap rate differential continues to stray deeper into negative territory.
• Last week’s December inflation report underscored Norges Bank’s cautious policy stance, which combined with a resurgence in oil prices keeps the near-term risk tilted towards further NOK strength.
• On a longer-term basis, Nordea’s analysis of NOK transactions from several channels (Norges Bank, life and pension companies, oil companies, foreign direct investment and the trade balance) also indicates a somewhat stronger krona through 2026.
• Elsewhere, we note that NOKSEK has been unable to close above resistance at the 20-day EMA of 0.9155 so far this year, with SEK continuing to benefit from solid regional risk sentiment and improving domestic growth signals. That keeps a bearish theme intact for now.
• The remainder of this week’s Scandi calendar includes Swedish final December CPI and unemployment claims data tomorrow, alongside Norwegian Q4 industrial confidence and the December trade balance.

Figure 1: EURNOK Since 2025 (Source Bloomberg Finance L.P)

Bonds draw further support from the latest round of intraday downside in U.S. equities.

• While geopolitical risks continue to dominate macro headline flow, financials are lower after some of the big banks reported earnings, while Nvidia struggles after reports suggested that “Chinese customs authorities told customs agents this week that Nvidia's H200 artificial intelligence chips are not permitted to enter China”.