FOREX: Key EURUSD Resistance Building ~1.0530
Feb-26 10:16
- EURUSD highs over the past two sessions at 1.0525 and 1.0528 have fallen just shy of a key resistance point for the pair, building the significance of 1.0533, the Jan 27 high and an important reversal trigger. Clearance of the 1.0533 mark would strengthen a bullish technical condition and pave the way for a climb towards 1.0630, the Dec 6 high.
- A large amount of option expiries between 1.0500-1.0550 might be helping to contain the price action this week, and it is also worth noting that Wednesday marks value-date month end. EURUSD selling is one of Deutsche Bank’s higher conviction views for this week from a flow perspective, which could also be limiting the scope for the pair to extend meaningfully higher.
- With that said, DB turned relatively more bullish on the single currency, recently adjusting their short position to neutral. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs economists have recently raised their European growth forecasts and see even more potential upside from a ceasefire deal—suggesting a positive impulse to EURUSD, which markets have already started to price.
- Taking the other side, ING continue to view this as the top of the trading range for the quarter. They think resistance in the 1.0530/50 area can hold and the return to the tariff story next week can drag EURUSD back to 1.04 and maybe lower.
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US-RUSSIA: Kremlin Waiting For White House To OK Putin-Trump Call
Jan-27 10:14
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Moscow is yet to receive signals from the White House about a meeting or call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, noting a "certain amount of time" was needed before a meeting could take place, per Reuters.
- Comes after Peskov said on Friday: “Putin’s ready, we’re waiting for signals. Everyone is ready.”
- Putin said in an interview on Friday: "We have always said, and I want to emphasise this again, we are ready for these talks on the Ukrainian issue."
- In the interview, Putin appeared to offer Trump a sweetener, supporting Trump’s claims that the US presidential election was “stolen” and the Ukraine war could have been avoided if Trump were president: “...if they hadn't stolen victory from him in 2020, the crisis that emerged in Ukraine in 2022 could have been avoided."
- The comments are consistent with regular Kremlin comments signposting openness to talks, but the more conciliatory language appears to signal a more genuine pivot to reopening lines of communication than during the Biden administration.
- Putin's comments came after Trump issued his first threat to Russia since taking office: “If we don’t make a “deal,” and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on [Russia]...”
- Politico notes: “Putin and his inner circle aren’t taking Trump’s recent sanction threats seriously, instead seeing it as posturing ahead of actual direct talks about the war in Ukraine.”
US TSY OPTIONS: Larger Risk Reversal
Jan-27 10:12
TYH5 108.50/110.50 RR , bought the call for 17 in 30k (ref 109.03).
EQUITIES: EU Bank Index recovers from the low
Jan-27 10:12
- Despite the Risk Off tone, led by Tech, the Bank Index (SX7E) is doing better, trading circa flat on the day, now edging to session to close the opening gap.
- This chart remains one of the most interesting one at the start of 2025, with the next big level seen up to 163.34, the 2014 high.
- No surprises in seeing the Tech sector as the worst performer, (SX8P) has seen its biggest single move since 15th October, and looking to test the 800.00 level
