GLOBAL: Key Central Bank Decision Dates - 2024
Dec-21 11:15
We've published our calendar of Key Central Bank Decision Dates for 2024 - please see PDF in link below.
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ISRAEL: Axios-Deal On Hostage Release, Ceasefire Imminent: Sources
Nov-21 11:12
Axios reporting that according to its sources a deal between Israel and Hamas that would see hostages taken in the 7 Oct attacks released in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza is 'imminent'. The report claims that the Qatari-brokered deal would come in two phases.
- Firstly, Israel would release three Palestinian prisoners in Israel for each Israeli hostage held by Hamas, with the numbers mooted to be around the 50 in exchange for 150 level (the large majority of those released on both sides are to be women, children, and minors). This exchange would take place over the course of a four-day ceasefire in Gaza. During this ceasefire, 300 aid trucks would be allowed to enter Gaza per day.
- In the second phase, another 50 Israeli hostages would be released in exchange for an extended ceasefire and another 150 Palestinian prisoners freed.
- Such a ceasefire would not necessarily signal an end to the conflict in the longer term, with Israel seemingly still committed to rooting out Hamas in Gaza even if the hostages are returned.
- However, Netanyahu remains under significant domestic pressure, and once the hostages are returned there is the potential that the unity gov't involving opposition figures collapses. This in turn could see Netanyahu forced from office, with the PM seeing support for himself and his party collapse amid perceptions of a failure on his part to get the hostages back quickly and lack of contrition for not seeing the Hamas attacks coming in the first place.
STIR: OI Signals Mixed SOFR Positioning Swings On Monday, Long Cover In Whites Most Prominent
Nov-21 11:11
The mix of yesterday’s twist flattening on the SOFR strip and preliminary open interest data points to the following positioning swings on the SOFR strip on Monday:
- Whites: Long cover appeared to dominate, with only SFRU3 seemingly seeing fresh shorts set in net terms.
- Reds: An apparent mix of short setting, long cover and long setting.
- Greens: Short cover seemed to dominate on a pack basis, with pockets of apparent long setting noted.
- Blues: The pack was seemingly tilted towards net long setting, although net short cover was seemingly seen in SFRU6.
| 20-Nov-23 | 17-Nov-23 | Daily OI Change | Daily OI Change In Packs | ||
| SFRU3 | 958,498 | 951,826 | +6,672 | Whites | -59,517 |
| SFRZ3 | 1,365,300 | 1,416,252 | -50,952 | Reds | +16,818 |
| SFRH4 | 1,109,812 | 1,120,736 | -10,924 | Greens | -10,352 |
| SFRM4 | 1,015,258 | 1,019,571 | -4,313 | Blues | +1,916 |
| SFRU4 | 913,509 | 910,147 | +3,362 | ||
| SFRZ4 | 890,350 | 896,877 | -6,527 | ||
| SFRH5 | 522,617 | 517,970 | +4,647 | ||
| SFRM5 | 580,333 | 564,997 | +15,336 | ||
| SFRU5 | 549,935 | 547,190 | +2,745 | ||
| SFRZ5 | 546,049 | 557,916 | -11,867 | ||
| SFRH6 | 375,751 | 379,186 | -3,435 | ||
| SFRM6 | 312,790 | 310,585 | +2,205 | ||
| SFRU6 | 299,025 | 300,672 | -1,647 | ||
| SFRZ6 | 239,871 | 238,936 | +935 | ||
| SFRH7 | 140,476 | 139,912 | +564 | ||
| SFRM7 | 131,652 | 129,588 | +2,064 |
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Existing Home Sale, FOMC Minutes
Nov-21 11:08
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Nov-21 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (0.2, 0.0)
- Nov-21 0830 Philly Fed Fed Non-Mfg Activity (-20.3, --)
- Nov-21 1000 Existing Home Sales (3.96M, 3.9M), MoM (-2.0%, -1.5%)
- Nov-21 1130 US Tsy $26B 2Y FRN re-open, $75B 41D bill CMB
- Nov-21 1300 US Tsy $15B 10Y TIPS re-open (91282CHP9)
- Nov-21 1400 FOMC Meeting Minutes for the November meeting
- Wednesday, meanwhile, sees weekly claims, durables/cap-goods and UofM conditions/inflation expectations.
