EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Kering | A Note on Questions around Artémis

Jun-24 11:46

(KERFP; NR/BBB+) 

So there seems to have been some investor focus (i.e. worry) around Artemis, the Pinault family holding company, which holds:

  • 43% of Kering
  • 29% of Puma
  • 100% of Christie's - leading art auctioneer
  • 96% of Ponant - cruise company with 14 ships
  • 54% of CAA - talent recruitment firm
  • 77% stake in various wine estates
  • 49% of SCAR - helicopter charter company
  • 100% of Stade Rennais football club and magazine Le Point

The concerns may have spawned from this Reuters article in late May.

Note the article refers to consolidated figures (you will need to strip out Kering numbers, which are fully consolidated to see Holdco debt/metrics) -> it is cleaner to look at Artémis’s unconsolidated accounts - which is what we use.

Concerns may be whether it can cover interest payments at the holdco level and, if not, whether that will influence Kering's financial policy (Pinault's are controlling shareholders of Kering). We see no signs of alarming governance thus far (targeting deleveraging with dividend at 56% payout - close to the targeted 50% ratio). We also see Holdco Artémis able to absorb the more than halving in dividends that it will receive this year but we do see that taking interest cover from 3x to mid 1x. We see the 6b in debt on an LTV of 60% when only including the owned % of Kering & Puma (at market prices). 5y credit risk embedded in the convert today is pricing around +175 for reference.

Re why the issuance today it is likely refi for maturing €500m convert. It will be issued by a SPV (Cara) that parent Artémis will likely guarantee. Importantly we see no cross-guarantee or cross-default provisions between Artémis and Kering/KERFP and hence see no fundamental link in Holdco vs. KERFP credit metrics outside dividend issues discussed above.

Historical bullets

JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies off Lows

May-23 22:45
  • RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
  • RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6 
  • RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
  • PRICE: 139.40 @ 15:42 GMT May 23
  • SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
  • SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg   
  • SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg

JGBs have rallied off recent lows and for now, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal. 

US FISCAL: Total Tariff Income Jumping In May As New Rates Hit

May-23 20:54

Treasury reported a record $16.5B in customs/excise taxes on May 22, reflecting the large increase in tariff rates that went into effect in April.

  • Today's report is important because it represents the largest tariff collections of the month which are typically on a due date around the 22nd, when most corporate importers make their payments.
  • Thursday's one-day collection is a record, and the month has already set a new record. Tariff revenues have totaled $22.3B so far in May, and are came in at $17.4B in April (after averaging $8.1B/month in 2024).
  • For the fiscal year as a whole so far, customs duties have totaled just under $93B, per the Treasury Daily Statement.
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US FISCAL: Extraordinary Measures Continue To Dissipate Alongside Treasury Cash

May-23 20:35

Treasury's latest estimate of the size of "extraordinary measures" available to use "in order to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations as Congress deliberate[s] on increasing the debt limit" is down to $67B on May 21 (of an available $299B), vs $82B a week earlier. 

  • The amount hit the 2nd lowest level since the debt limit impasse started, at $46B, on May 20 (the low was $34B on Feb 24).
  • With $476B in cash in the Treasury General Account on May 21, that left the total resources available to Treasury at $543B, the least since April 14 - the day before the annual April 15 tax deadline.
  • Treasury Sec Bessent warned Congress earlier this month that "there is a reasonable probability that the federal government's cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted in August while Congress is scheduled to be in recess. Therefore, I respectfully urge Congress to increase or suspend the debt limit by mid-July".
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