EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Kering: may sell (instead of buy) Valentino

EQUITY ROLLS, June is still front Month in Europe, but this should change Today, for the US, September was already front Month Yesterday.

Expect the Pace to really pick up Today, there's very little risks at least on the Data front, and some time until the FOMC.

Investors will also be aware that Tomorrow is Juneteenth, so best to take advantage of the liquidity before it dies down in the June Expiry into Tomorrow and Triple Witching Friday.

PACE:

US:

• SPX: 72%.
• NDX: 71%.
• DOW: 72%.

EU:

• VGA: 65%.
• DAX: 55%.
• FTSE: 70%.

Gilts fade the opening downtick, with the BoE likely to view this morning’s CPI data as in line with expectations that prevailed ahead of the release, albeit with some worry surrounding still-elevated food inflation.

• Gilt futures stick within yesterday’s range, trading as low as 92.48 before a bounce to ~92.65.
• The bullish technical conditions in the contract remain intact, initial support and resistance located at 92.23 and 93.13, respectively.
• Yields 0.5-2bp lower, curve bull steepens.
• 10s last 4.545%, with bulls unable to extend on/maintain last week’s break below 4.50%.
• GBP STIRs still trade around pre-gilt open levels.
• SONIA futures flat to +2.0, BoE-dated OIS showing 48bp of cuts through year-end.
• Our full preview of tomorrow’s BoE decision is available here.
• Expectations point towards a 7-2 vote split with both Dhingra and Taylor likely to follow up their votes for a 50bp cut in May with a vote for a sequential cut (the magnitude of which is unlikely to elicit a market reaction).
• The main focus is on whether the dataflow has been enough to convince any other members of the MPC to vote for a cut.

• RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing 
• RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
• RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $37.317 - Intraday high  
• PRICE: $37.220 @ 08:13 BST Jun 18 
• SUP 1: $34.184 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $33.970/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

A bull wave in Silver remains in play and Tuesday’s fresh cycle high, reinforces this condition. The metal has recently traded through a resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The clear break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $34.184, the 20-day EMA.